When would you fold AA's

[pzhon]

This is a bankroll management question. It is hard to give a consistent answer to the collection of questions of this type unless you use mathematics. An example of a mathematical approach is to use the Kelly criterion, which says to maximize the expected logarithm of your bankroll. That says when you win 82% of decisive hands, you are better off not betting if you would have to bet over 95.2% ~ 20/21 of your bankroll.

Someone following the Kelly criterion for bankroll management, who has $10k at home, should be willing to risk up to about $200,800, so should try to double up 8 times to $256,000 and then quit. This wins $255,000 about 0.82^8 ~ 20% of the time, and loses $1,000 about 80% of the time.

Having a larger bankroll would mean the player would risk more. Following a more conservative rule than the Kelly criterion means the player should tend to risk less.

[Albert Moulton]

There are rare tournament situations where it is +EV to fold AA preflop. But they are very unusual.

Otherwise, it is +EV to get all the money in as an 80% favorite. So, get the money in every time. Bankroll management is a separate issue, and what you are really getting at is BR management and risk of ruin questions. But, as to the hand in question, in a cash game you always get the money in the middle here.

I suppose if the other player said, "I'm all in with kings, and if you win I'll double you up, but if you lose I'll shoot you in the face." And then he pulled out a loaded gun and pointed it at me, then I'd probably fold. But I'd have to ask the dealer for time to consider my options first.

[wtfsvi]

I'll take the 13-14% chance at $512k. Don't think I'd have the balls to go higher.

[formula72]

I cant believe I got such a wide variety of answers

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I cant believe I got such a wide variety of answers

[/ QUOTE ]
You should have been able to predict it. You would also get widely varying answers if you asked, "How large is your bankroll?"

[PantsOnFire]

I have posted along a similar vein and I will get to that in a minute.

This answer depends on way too many factors as the others have pointed out. A college kid with $500 in the bank and no debts may want to go far. A middle-aged family man may want to get out when he can pay off his mortgage. But depending on those two very different people, it could be the exact reverse. And as someone else pointed out, people in your life like a spouse would likely come into play as well. So a young single person may have a different perspective than a family man.

Here is an AA conundrum I posted about a long time ago. The situation is this: You are in a tourney with three players left. The payout is third - 0, second - $500K, first - $1M. You and the chip leader each have 200K chips and the third player has 5K chips. The blinds are 2K/4K. You are dealt AA on the button. Other chipleader is SB and goes all-in and BB folds leaving him 1K chips behind. What do you do?

I feel this is similar to what you are asking. At the time I answered that I would fold until third player was out locking up $500K. Many disagreed saying being at least 78% to risk $500K to win another $500K was something every gambler would do without thinking. However, I had a problem with the "risking $500K" part of that.

So in answer to your subject, that's when I would fold AA.

And in general, I would say that players would fold AA when they figure they cannot afford to lose whatever it is they would lose if they called and go outdrawn. If it's a cash game, then you should likely leave the game and go to the bank. If it's a tourney, then you are looking to make a significant move on the pay ladder either in prize money or locking up a satellite seat.

[dtf13]

256,000

[GeeBeeQED]

To me it's a question is what is "Life changing money?" The $1000 wouldn't mean much to me, the $2000 or $4000 or 8000 level wouldn't make a big difference for me. I would have to say winning $16 to 32k would be life changing letting me enter many higher level live tourny's which is the primary reason I play anyway. To me it's about building a bankroll from cash games to take shots at life changing money in bigger tournements. I think this question might have many different correct and arguable answers. Each his own here. As I understand the question, It's key to understand that if you keep spinning the barrel and pulling the trigger your going to die, even if only one chamber has a bullet.

Dave

[markg]

I thought about this overnight. If I was at a table of a major tournament and the bubble was upon us. The chip leader went all in and I had pocket aces. I was for sure making the money and needed it, I would fold the aces because they are not 100%. If I did not need the money obviously I would call. Imagine AA versus KK and trips hit KK when you needed the money, you would ask this question why did I even look at my cards.

[Rek]

[ QUOTE ]
I have posted along a similar vein and I will get to that in a minute.

This answer depends on way too many factors as the others have pointed out. A college kid with $500 in the bank and no debts may want to go far. A middle-aged family man may want to get out when he can pay off his mortgage. But depending on those two very different people, it could be the exact reverse. And as someone else pointed out, people in your life like a spouse would likely come into play as well. So a young single person may have a different perspective than a family man.

Here is an AA conundrum I posted about a long time ago. The situation is this: You are in a tourney with three players left. The payout is third - 0, second - $500K, first - $1M. You and the chip leader each have 200K chips and the third player has 5K chips. The blinds are 2K/4K. You are dealt AA on the button. Other chipleader is SB and goes all-in and BB folds leaving him 1K chips behind. What do you do?

I feel this is similar to what you are asking. At the time I answered that I would fold until third player was out locking up $500K. Many disagreed saying being at least 78% to risk $500K to win another $500K was something every gambler would do without thinking. However, I had a problem with the "risking $500K" part of that.

So in answer to your subject, that's when I would fold AA.

And in general, I would say that players would fold AA when they figure they cannot afford to lose whatever it is they would lose if they called and go outdrawn. If it's a cash game, then you should likely leave the game and go to the bank. If it's a tourney, then you are looking to make a significant move on the pay ladder either in prize money or locking up a satellite seat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say of the 78% who said they would risk it probably 90% of those would not if actually put in the situation you describe.

I am sure people answer questions here without reading the the post properly or giving it some serious thought. Unless you are wealthy enough to lose a fortune on the turn of a card (huge favorite or not) such life changing amounts will overide all mathmatical considerations.

This is in no way a mathmatical conumdrum. In normal circumstances you would call every day of the week and twice on Sundays. But if you are Joe Average, earing $50K per annum working 50 hours a week, and this is a once in a lifetime opportunity my guess would be 95% turn it down and the other 5% take an age to decide whether to call.

Easy to come on here and say "I'm getting great odds of course I call" when it is purely hypothetical. Has nobody had AA cracked? People talk as if you are a 99.9% favorite.

I really don't see much difference to somebody knocking on your door and saying "put your life savings on the line and I will roll a dice. If it comes up 1,2.3,4 or 5 you win but if it is a 6 you lose". Great odds but 78% would noway take it.