Luck

[SamIAm]

I noticed that, on days I'm going to play lots of poker, I make sure to do Good Deeds before hand. Like, I'll make sure to tip well when I eat before the session. Or I'll make extra sure not to litter.

The thing is, I don't think I'm trying to bribe some higher-power into effecting random events for me. Rather, it's something like protecting myself for feeling responsible for bad luck later. Like, if I happen to lose that session, I don't want to say "Oh, man! What if the reason I lost today was that I didn't call my mother this week, and G-d is pissed!"

This way I cover all my bases; I can play supersticious before and after the session, and maximize EV during. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
-Sam

[atrifix]

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Thanks for the reply. I have seen a similar case only once. We had a guy who played with us for about a year back in the 70's. He would literally get up and walk away from a +count shoe because "it didn't feel right." We considered dropping him -- but he was in every other way an excellent player. He's the ONLY player I've ever met or seen who never brought in a losing session.

Either this guy was adding his personal money to the bank, or there was something about his "feelings" that worked well for him (and us). At one time we decided to calculate the random probability of him never losing, and after getting an overflow error on our early computers we simply accepted that it was a small number.

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Having played a wide variety of games, let me say that this guy was probably a world class player. When you become a great player you eventually reach a point where you can make decisions without even having to think about them (for example, in poker, you call an all-in bet with A2 because you just know that the other guy has king-high). I don't think this has to do with luck, but it's the impression of decision-making onto the subconscious.

I think anyone, no matter how good, is going to need a some luck to never book a losing session. Good players will need less luck, though.

[SheetWise]

atrifix --

That's one of the reasons I posted at "other gambling." Poker has so much subtle information available that any decision can be attributed to skill. Unless, of course, you reraise "The Hammer" because you just know that 2-2-2 is going to flop. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

That I would call a premonition.

[SheetWise]

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The thing is, I don't think I'm trying to bribe some higher-power into effecting random events for me. Rather, it's something like protecting myself for feeling responsible for bad luck later.

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I think I need to add karma to the list of behavioral influences as well.

[SamIAm]

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Poker has so much subtle information available that any decision can be attributed to skill.

[/ QUOTE ]So, back to your blackjack guy, is there any way in which a shuffled deck of cards with a positive count can be -EV? There simply is no skill that can tell him to stand-up when the cards are going to come for the dealer and not the player, right?
-Sam

[Double Down]

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sheets - i know you to be a very intelligent and wise poster and a quite informed gambling theorist. are you asking this question b/c you think the responses might be amusing or just b/c of boredom or is there some other motive?

this is actually a very interesting question and im hoping some people will give legitimate responses.

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It's a serious question. I think the word "luck" means a lot of different things to different people. For example -- Skipbidder assumed that luck implies some sort of zero-sum accounting. Double Down took the position that luck is a correlation between intuition and outcome, and didn't infer any past/future relationship.

When I use the word, it's closer to the meaning Double Down takes -- and what I'm interested in.

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To clarify just a little bit, I don't believe in luck. I believe that thought creates experience, much in the same way that quantum physics is finding that our reality is literally formed by consciousness. I believe that if one creates positive energy and puts that towards specific clear goals, that the universe will meet them halfway and they will achieve the desired result.

[SheetWise]

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There simply is no skill that can tell him to stand-up when the cards are going to come for the dealer and not the player, right?
-Sam

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There's no skill I'm aware of that will tell you how the cards are going to come out. Shuffle tracking may indicate that the count is going to continue to go up rather than provide an advantage, or that the advantage is past the stop card. Tracking would generally indicate a large bet off the top of the shoe (which then goes negative) or not playing the shoe at all -- not leaving at a plus count. But even with excellent tracking skills and perfect play, you wouldn't expect a year of winning sessions in blackjack any more than you would expect a year of losing sessions in craps or roulette.

[SheetWise]

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To clarify just a little bit, I don't believe in luck.

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It seems logical to deny a belief in luck, just as it seems logical to deny a belief in God. They're charged words that generally mean something completely different to every person hearing them. The logic in denying a belief is the risk that the listener might think your belief is the same as their belief -- when in fact there might not be any common ground.

Luck n. The chance happening of fortunate or adverse events.

By definition, how can you not believe in it? Even the mathematician who fully comprehends the range and probability of potential outcomes has to acknowledge that there are both fortunate and unfortunate occurrences and fluctuations -- luck.

If one person says "I believe in luck", and the second says "one creates positive energy" -- it's the latter statement that requires faith and ventures into mysticism.

I think most people believe that they can foresee or influence their fortune in -EV games. I believe that their ability to do so as a group exactly matches the mathematical expectation. I also believe that there are individual players whose results are so consistent with their intent that it cannot be explained by chance.

[136913691369]

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By definition, how can you not believe in it? Even the mathematician who fully comprehends the range and probability of potential outcomes has to acknowledge that there are both fortunate and unfortunate occurrences and fluctuations -- luck.

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Yeah, mathematicains call it "variance" though, not luck

[SheetWise]

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Yeah, mathematicians call it "variance" though, not luck.

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Luck simply implies an interest in the effect of variance. Luck is either good or bad -- variance is just variance.