50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day

[eMedia]

dont push donk

[Split Suit]

fullstacking (which is implied since nothing else has been suggested thus far), this is hyper hyper -EV. like, insanely -EV. only things that call u are AK/QQ+, and QQ isnt always a go, same with AK. so really ur move isolates only AA/KK to snap u off

ur estimates in the OP about gettin called are very optimistic. ur risking $50 to make $.75, and when u get ur money in ur generally gonna have 18%-38% equity (ranges KK+ --> QQ+/AK). even a basic look at those numbers says its -EV.

doin this from a shortstacking angle is different (risking $10 to make $.75 is a HUUUUUUUUUUUGE difference)...but im sure thats obvious...tho maybe not

[AllTheCheese]

Honestly, if they call his open shoves as light as he says they do (KQ, Ax), then this isn't a bad play. Obv, it's massively exploitable and silly, but if his opps are too stupid to capitalize on this and continue to donate to open-shoves, I say keep doing it.

[Albino Lobster]

Let's assume it is +EV; is it even close to optimal? I'd so most likely not.

[Ryanj37]

There this thing called shortstacking. Its what people that dont like to play post flop do. Try it

[holdem2000]

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Let's assume it is +EV; is it even close to optimal? I'd say most likely not.

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QFT. Incidentally, you (OP) say that you go uncontested 90% of the time, but your AK winrate is below 90%... I'm guessing you don't push it when there's already a raise or something? Why is your WtSD so much less than 100%?

I do believe your AK winrates are going to change significantly from where they're at in your small sample (notice in your before, an only slightly smaller sample, AKs only wins 60% as much as AKo per hand). My winrates for individual hands are still moving significantly in my database with hundreds of thousands of hands, and I don't have a hyper-variance AK game plan.

Bear in mind that when you get called by any Ax or Kx hand it's probably from a shorter stack, most of the big stacks have QQ+.

Your percentages in the OP about how often you run into each scenario are flat out wrong. You've only done this a couple hundred times and don't have nearly enough data to claim you're against AA/KK 1% of the time in general. Even if you're playing heads up and you have AK, your opponent has AA/KK exactly 6 times in 1225 (about .49% of the time), even just pushing into 3 random hands you run into AA/KK more than 1% of the time.

[Johnes Benjamin]

-A single player is almost 1% to be dealt AA/KK (if I remember correctly it is about .9%). Saying you run into AA/KK 1% on a FR table is ridiculous.
-This is extremely exploitable and anyone halfway decent will pick up on it and start calling you very light (but still ahead of your range)
-People do not call open pushes fullstacked with Ax or two faces hardly ever. Only the biggest donks will do this
-Greatly narrows the range of any hands you play normally

I agree with others that shortstacked it is less horrendous
a final note, you will never learn to play poker playing like this. Even if it did work at NL50 and 100 (which it won't, i must reiterate) you have no hope of ever becoming a good player
/thread
/night

[GiantBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
Heres the breakdown as I see it:
90% of the time the push goes uncontested
10% of the time, I get a call:
-1% of that is AA/KK
-5% is pocket pairs
-4% is two faces (Ax,KQ,JK,..)

[/ QUOTE ]

When you hold AK, each opponent has a .49% chance of holding AA or KK (6/1225). Each opponent who doesn't hold an A or a K makes it slightly more likely that someone will hold AA or KK, therefore, shoving UTG in a 9 handed game, you have very close to a 4% chance of running into AA or KK.

2% vs. AA you lose 92% or 82BB per
2% vs. KK you lose 69% or 38BB per
4% vs. QQ you lose 56% or 12BB per
6% vs. AK you chop and lose 2BB to the rake (1BB @ NL100)

If your opponents only called with these hands, leaving you to win the pot 88% of the time, your open push would have an expectation of:

.88(1.5BB) - .02(82BB) - .02(38BB) - .04(12BB) - .06(2BB)
= 1.32 - 1.64 - .76 - .48 - .12 = -1.68

-1.68BB w/AK is --EV in my book.

Now, that's assuming your opponents only call with a range of QQ+/AK. Every pocket pair they call with takes away a little bit of EV, although we can safely assume you won't get called by anyone who holds a pair every time.

As for your assertion that you get called five times as often by a hand you're dominating as by AA or KK, I think that's absurd, but, if it's true, how often do you need to get called by AQ or worse to make this +EV?

8% vs. AQ you win 74% or 48BB per
gives you +3.84BB

So if your opponents actually call your open shove for 100BB half the time they're dealt AQ (and always for JJ-), then yes, this is +EV. If they're calling with AJ/KQ type hands, then it's ++EV. If that's the case, though, you could probably teach us all a thing or two about game selection.

[Bluegrassplayer]

Not sure if I understand what is going on here.

Lets say that preflop you make the average raise of 3-4 times the BB, they raise 3x that and you think that past information they always have queens or jacks here. Then yeah, you shove I think. You are priced in, there's a chance they will fold thinking you have aa or kk, and you have built the pot enough that you have to get it in with a little less than a coin flip. If they actually call you with a/q or worse here, then this is definitely a good play. Please tell me which players are this dumb.

[Renton]

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LOL

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