I turn an absolute monster hand/draw - Page 2

istewart · #11 03-16-2006, 08:39 PM

Seems like you just lessen your implied odds by capping.

Kwaz · #12 03-17-2006, 09:02 AM

This question depends on what % of the time you think your hand will be good at showdown UI.

It also depends on how often villian will check to you or attempt a c/r on the river after you cap. And, of course, the range you give him.

Inbetween 0% and 7% showdown value is the grey area.

At 0% it's easy. You call and fold the river UI.
At >7% it's easy. You call and call the river UI.
At >50% it's easy. You call and raise the river.

But using a grossly simplified example for our grey area (0-7%):

Let's say you give villian JTo 95% of the time and a pure bluff 5%.

You don't have the odds to call the river UI. But you are costing yourself 5% of the pot by not seeing a showdown.
5% of 12BB = .6BB

You have 9 outs 95% of the time and 44 outs 5% on the turn.
~25% equity on the turn.
Putting in 50% of the money, that's a 25% deficit and an investment of .25BB to cap the turn.

Implied odds say that you will get an extra 1BB on the river 20% of the time if you just call the turn. =.2BB

Now let's say that he checks the river to you 100% of the time after you cap the turn.

If you cap, you will invest .25BB on the turn to do so and cost yourself .2BB in implied odds on the river.

Total cost = .45BB (.2 + .25)

But seeing a SD for free = .6BB (5% of pot)

So you should cap the turn.

So, the bottom line is, the margain in which capping the turn is profitable is so narrow, and the variables so great, call/call is a much more attractive proposition.

Hoi Polloi · #13 03-17-2006, 10:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As if top pair wasn't good enough, now I've got an OESD and flush draw to go along with it.

Value cap?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $5.
Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, 3 folds, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps??

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you're draws are not as strong as you seem to think they are and it looks like you're behind on the turn. A 1-card OESD is much weaker than a 2-card draw. Your pair is almost certainly no good and hitting another K may not make you best hand.

Your flush outs may be the only solid one's you have. I'd call here and on the river unless the flush comes.

Schwatt · #14 03-18-2006, 12:58 AM

Umm, I fold this pf. Anyone else?

ncboiler · #15 03-18-2006, 01:44 AM

Yes value cap.

ncboiler · #16 03-18-2006, 01:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Umm, I fold this pf. Anyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is not the question at hand.

mtdoak · #17 03-18-2006, 02:01 AM

Not heads up.

five4suited · #18 03-18-2006, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Umm, I fold this pf. Anyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

No way, no how.

As for the action, I'd call the reraise.

XmasXmas · #19 03-18-2006, 04:33 AM

i don't hate the limp pf, but i also don't particularly like it. unless specific conditions (low pfr% and high vpip were in place), generally i'd fold this.

how would this be a cap for value? as other people who responded wrote, you'd have to be positive you have 23 clean outs for this to be a cap for value (with no way of knowing that).

if you had a read on sb, and think that he's aggressive/stupid enough to potentially be lead-three betting a weaker hand here, i suppose a cap for a free show down works. however, i like calling and folding ui much, much better.

*TT* · #20 03-18-2006, 01:38 PM

I prefer to call and go to war on the river when you improve (and you will, because you run h0t like that mate!).

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]