Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
X-posted from the Texas thread...

Mack Brown went for 2 after scoring with 5 minutes left against UCF to go ahead by 11.

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I would say like 5-10 minutes left in the game is the cutoff for stuff like this. Any more time left and I don't think you can automatically call any 2pt-conversion/PAT decision stupid. In college I would probably go for 2 every time, so that covers any excuse for a seemingly stupid 2pt-try. With 9 or 10+ minutes left in the game, too much can happen to just automatically for 2 based on game situation, imo.

But yeah, with 5 minutes to go, thats pretty dumb. WAY worse with like 38 seconds to go in the UK situation.

[SuperUberBob]

Joe Pa running the same draw play on every single 2nd and long vs. Michigan.

[mo42nyy]

Phil Garner earlier in the year:
Houston vs Phillies top 13th or 14th
2nd and 3rd 1 out for the Phillies tied game
The pitcher is on deck (the Phillies are out of position players )
Garner doesnt intentionally walk the batter
Eventually the batter fouls off a few pitches and walks anyway at which time Jamie Moyer has to pinch it and promtly strikes out

[mo42nyy]

Also I dont watch a ton of football- What exactly is the ev of going for 2 when you score down 14 vs kicking the extra point?
If you had a bad offense and were playing a great defense how much would this change what would be the correct play?

[NozeCandy]

What do you guys think about this?

I believe in the Michigan game, after Hart's TD, that they were up 7 before the PAT. Carr just kicked the extra point to go up 8. Why not go for two here? Penn State's offense hadn't been doing anything all game. You have Mike Hart who can usually get 2 yards. If you don't make it, you are still up 7 and PSU is not going for two even if they do somehow score a TD. If you make it, the game is 2 possessions and pretty much over considering how the game had gone so far. What completion percentage do you need on the 2 pt conversion to make this a good play?

Note: This was with 8:52 left in the 4th.

[Gregatron]

Noze,

I know I might take flack for saying Lloyd Carr did something right, but yeah, I kick the xp. I they happen to score a TD on a fluke like a return fumble or something, you MAKE them make a 2 pt conversion to tie. Basically, it forces a badly performing offense to perform.

I understand your logic though. I, like most of the other posters here, don't like going for 2 unless it's obviously necessary.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys think about this?

I believe in the Michigan game, after Hart's TD, that they were up 7 before the PAT. Carr just kicked the extra point to go up 8. Why not go for two here? Penn State's offense hadn't been doing anything all game. You have Mike Hart who can usually get 2 yards. If you don't make it, you are still up 7 and PSU is not going for two even if they do somehow score a TD. If you make it, the game is 2 possessions and pretty much over considering how the game had gone so far. What completion percentage do you need on the 2 pt conversion to make this a good play?

Note: This was with 8:52 left in the 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've wondered about this same thing many times

[jstnrgrs]

[ QUOTE ]
Also I dont watch a ton of football- What exactly is the ev of going for 2 when you score down 14 vs kicking the extra point?
If you had a bad offense and were playing a great defense how much would this change what would be the correct play?

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Essentially, if you go for two, you can win by:
making the 2 AND scoring another touchdown

OR

missing the two AND socring another touchdown AND making the two (after the second touchdown) AND winning in overtime.

If you don't go for two, you can win by:

scoring another touchdown AND winning in overtime.


If you do the math, it turns out that if you have a better that 38% chance of making 2, then it is +EV do go for 2 when down by 14 (8 after the touchdown). Almost any team will have a better than 38% chance to make a 2 point conversion.

This assumes a 50% chance of winning in overtime and a 100% chance of making any kicked extra points. If you change those assumptions, the chance of making 2 that would be required to make it a +EV decision will change, but will still be such that almost any team should go for 2 in this situation.