Finally I have a hand...

[TripSearching]

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mabye a leak of mine but I would bet fold here like never. I think your putting in to much money where if you check/called he might not bet much more than 70 even with a made flush, and you might induce a bluff from pocket 8s or whatever so I think I'd start by checking and see what he bets. If its near the amount you were going to bet/fold then at least you got to showdown and may have induced a bluff. If it was just a club, and not the ace of clubs then it would seem to be a much less scary card in villians eyes because if hero had been betting qq/kk the whole way villian my try to bluff the ace along with the club draw. So I'd like to see what people think of c/c because if you did just make the flush are you really going to shove when hero looks scared or try and get value? And what is calling if we bet/fold that we beat? I can't think of a hand that calls that we beat if we bet so I think starting off checking is good. good hand to discuss I think.

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Good post, I agree with all of this. I never bet fold in this spot because you are stuck committing so much money with the intent to fold to practically a min raise getting 3 to 1.

[TheDivineRod]

I don't think villan is ever bluffing with a smaller pair here. He will check behind almost always.

[Unknown Soldier]

people c/c in really bad spots


b/f

[ValarMorghulis]

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so I think I'd start by checking and see what he bets. If its near the amount you were going to bet/fold then at least you got to showdown and may have induced a bluff.

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This is very bad thinking.

You're saying that betting 70 and calling 70 are similar because the same amount goes in the pot but that calling is better because you always go to showdown.

It depends on betting and calling ranges as to which is better. Say you think he always has either a trips or a middle pocket pair. You're not sure,you want to go to showdown so you ck/call rather than bet/fold. Now he checks behind his pocket pairs and bets his trips. You always lose money on this river. Whereas by bet/folding you lose the same amount on the river when he has trips but you make money on the river when he calls you down with his pocket pair. (which I think he will do some % of the time)

I think he is much more likely to call down with a pocket pair than to turn it into a bluff. If you disagree with this then, yeah, maybe check/call is better than bet/fold.

[SABR42]

Bet/fold for around half-pot looks good here.

If you don't think he'll call, check/fold is fine too.

Check/call is just awful here.

[Jamougha]

You're so rarely getting called by a worse hand after this action unless he's a huge station. Prefer check/fold.

[retep]

I find it interesting that the consensus is to b/f.

villain has to be a huge station to call the river with an underpair, Ax just got there as well as the flush and he has been fired into for 3 streets.

Is my reasoning flawed?

[Logun]

Given his action I don't believe him to have a simple overpair. I think he would have raised before the river. This looks suspiciously like he may have flopped a set of deuces (boat) or even turned it.

I highly doubt he will call your river bet with anything that you beat in this situation.

I would have to go 100% with my read on this one based on HH. If I've seen him limp with SC UTG and call down for a FD then I c/f. If I've seen him limp with PP UTG and call down on a drawy board then I b/f

[Don Key E37]

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so I think I'd start by checking and see what he bets. If its near the amount you were going to bet/fold then at least you got to showdown and may have induced a bluff.

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This is very bad thinking.

You're saying that betting 70 and calling 70 are similar because the same amount goes in the pot but that calling is better because you always go to showdown.

It depends on betting and calling ranges as to which is better. Say you think he always has either a trips or a middle pocket pair. You're not sure,you want to go to showdown so you ck/call rather than bet/fold. Now he checks behind his pocket pairs and bets his trips. You always lose money on this river. Whereas by bet/folding you lose the same amount on the river when he has trips but you make money on the river when he calls you down with his pocket pair. (which I think he will do some % of the time)

I think he is much more likely to call down with a pocket pair than to turn it into a bluff. If you disagree with this then, yeah, maybe check/call is better than bet/fold.

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I understand your thinking and I'm not saying bet/fold is always bad, I just think it is in this situation because not just a club, but the ace of clubs got there. Given the action I think you are pretty much never getting called by a worse hand than ours here/ getting raised by flushes/full houses/ and getting called by trips. So betting still seems bad to me, especially given stack sizes. In other situations I absolutely think bet/fold is the way to go, and I like the way you explained it also, just that in this situation I think its no good. I think I agree that usually c/f is best here, and I would only call if I had a read or feeling that villian was bluffing river on the very scary card.

[Ajahn]

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You're so rarely getting called by a worse hand after this action unless he's a huge station. Prefer check/fold.

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