$30nl two barrel a backdoor draw vs 2p2er?

[AZplaya]

who is villian?

[ama0330]

I doubt he folds a pair here.

[AZplaya]

I'll have to look in my db and find this hand...can't remember it off hand and I have no idea why I'm sitting short [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[corsakh]

He cant really have anything strong here if he is any good. I would be very surprised to see anything but TT-88, even TT is a stretch. But the thing is he is not folding it on a blank so don't even try, just hit your outs.

ps Hint: 2+2'er on your left. I change tables.

[Robjow]

He has TPGK here most of the time and a medium pair here some of the time. Out of position I would assume a 2p2er would raise a set?? I think your fold equity is low because the 2d doesn't change anything for the villain. If he was willing to call the flop he's probably willing to call the turn. I would check behind to try and hit your draws.

[AZplaya]

fwiw bozzer I really enjoyed your post in this thread about the ev of checking vs. betting, had a pokey - esque feel to it. I think the only questionable part of that equation was assuming you only get c/r'ed by a set - getting blown off this hand by a c/r really sux cuz you have sick implied and your draws are super disguised. I also think the likelyhood of a c/r goes up do to the hand being between 2p2.

[Sunny Mehta]

hi bozzer,

Personally I bet this turn like almost always. Basically it's as simple as: does villain have a big hand? Most of the time he doesn't, so you bet. He'll fold a lot of hands that have solid equity against you - that's great. He'll call with others - that's not bad. And yes sometimes he'll checkraise - but even then sometimes he'll do something goofy like price you in. Overall I like betting a lot better, and it's also good for balancing your two-barrel range. Perhaps I'd check against a nit who I know loves to specifically take the check-call check-raise line, but that's about it.

-S