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#11
05-28-2006, 06:20 PM
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Re: Detroit Tigers 35-14 (.714)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Look for the Tigers to regress to the mean and end up third in the division. [/ QUOTE ] Care to make it interesting? [/ QUOTE ] no, because it's not a sure bet. second is more likely. [/ QUOTE ] bwahahahahaha 
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#12
05-28-2006, 06:23 PM
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Re: Detroit Tigers 35-14 (.714)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Look for the Tigers to regress to the mean and end up third in the division. [/ QUOTE ] Care to make it interesting? [/ QUOTE ] no, because it's not a sure bet. second is more likely. [/ QUOTE ] actually, first is most likely.
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#13
05-28-2006, 06:24 PM
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Re: Detroit Tigers 35-14 (.714)
you think? They have what... a four game lead?
edit: a 2.5 game lead with 4/5ths of their staff overperforming. hmm.
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#14
05-28-2006, 06:28 PM
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Re: Detroit Tigers 35-14 (.714)
[ QUOTE ]
you think? They have what... a four game lead? [/ QUOTE ] PECOTA adjusted postseason odds have then at winning that division 75% of the time. they have been playing above their third order wins, but so hasn't chico.
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#16
05-28-2006, 06:57 PM
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Re: Detroit Tigers 35-14 (.714)
yeah, that's the part about "getting lucky." they've also played above their heads.
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#17
05-28-2006, 09:26 PM
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Re: Detroit Tigers 35-14 (.714)
[ QUOTE ]
What were the odds that they'd have this record or better before the season? 1,000-1? Pretty amazing. Yeah, they've only played 2 games against the East so far, but it's still pretty amazing for a team that's been among the worst in MLB for quite some time. Good for them. [/ QUOTE ] Don't feel like going through a detailed analysis, but a quick run-through of the #s makes 250-1 seem a lot closer than 1000-1.
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#19
05-28-2006, 09:43 PM
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Re: Detroit Tigers 35-14 (.714)
I'm not too convinced, but I'd think they would as well.
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#20
05-28-2006, 09:53 PM
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Re: Detroit Tigers 35-14 (.714)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What were the odds that they'd have this record or better before the season? 1,000-1? Pretty amazing. Yeah, they've only played 2 games against the East so far, but it's still pretty amazing for a team that's been among the worst in MLB for quite some time. Good for them. [/ QUOTE ] Don't feel like going through a detailed analysis, but a quick run-through of the #s makes 250-1 seem a lot closer than 1000-1. [/ QUOTE ] this is why clarkmeister should consider staying out of baseball threads. i guessed 150-1 and it's much closer to 250-1 than 1000 to 1 is. I'll also bet anyone even money that the Tigers don't finish in first.
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