Quick quiz

[corsakh]

Sorry for hijack, whats the deal with all these "LP" avatars?

[sebbb]

ok I just realized the question was check-call, when I thought it was "go all in with" (i.e. if we bet/3bet etc). So my range sucks a bit.

[McBeef]

im assuming ave tag

77-55,T9s,98s,87s
80%
80%

[carrotsnake]

60 and 68

[Golfdish]

A)
TT,99,88,77,66,55,44
9X,8X,98,94,84
XcYc
67,7T,JT,JQ

Range changes based on what he'd call PF with but w.e this seems fine to me.

B) 68%
C) 73%
D) - A9 having more outs to improve than AA
- A9 limiting the no. of combinations of 2pairs or sets villain could have

[Isura]

Alright, I'll give my 'answers' now.

A)I should have been a bit more clear in the OP about this. But assuming that we open in OTB, and he calls in the BB.

case 1: He doesn't slowplay two pair or TT-KK on the flop
(normal play here).

So I'd put him on 77-55, A9, T9, K9s-J9s (prob folds the offsuit versions), T8s, 97s, 76s, JT, QJ, Axs (down to A7s or A2s doesn't matter much in terms of effecting equity), and the broadway club hands (KQcc etc).

Given that, using pokerstove you get

AA ~ 74% equity
A9 ~66% equity

That's actually a pretty big difference. Reasons are that AA has more equity against two pair (not that important since its hard to get two pair or better!), and more importantly AA kills 'overcard outs' against the flush or straight draw hands. .

case 2: Now assume that villain plays tricky and can c/c the stronger hands of 98/sets/TT-KK. Then we get

AA equity ~ 70%
A9 equity ~ 52%

Now a huge difference. So even though we can now sometimes be against 'strong' hands, AA is still pretty damn good. Eliminate TT-KK from villains range but keep two pair/sets, and AA goes down to 65%, which still beats 58% for A9.

I guess we can take a few things out of this thread. Even though at first glance AA looks the same as A9, it is significantly stronger. AA is less vulnerable, and hence you bet purely for value. Where as with the A9 its for value and also protection (you don't mind if a hand with decent equity folds since they will often make up some of the deficit with implied odds). Now if the question was what do if check/raised on that board, then again equity would help us to a decision. AA dominates his c/r range (if he c/r clubs and str8 draws as well as 9x from time to time), and so we love getting it all-in on the flop before either scare cards hit or they suck out. But suppose we get c/r holding A9 there. Then getting AI is still not that bad, but calling and stacking off on blank turns (any non club 8-2, and J/T probably) would be a better play to punish his draws and also get away on bad cards that are likely to help him.

[DevinLake]

A) J9o, T9o, T8o, 87o, 77, 66, 55, 33, 22, Axcc, KTcc+, QTcc+, SC clubs, JTo, 76o, A9o.

Plus all the monsters, TT+, sets and 2prs. But, I'd discount them some because he'll re-raise TT+ quite a bit pre and will raise the flop with monster a lot of the time as well.

Because of this, I'd think A9 would have similar equity.

Also, because I feel people peel so light on these type boards, I double barrel them a lot with or without a made hand.

[sebbb]

ok let me add a few more hands then

A)
99,88,44,89s : 12 hands- 10% equity
56c,AKc,QJc,TJc,67c : 5 hands- 50%
TJs, 67s (suit<>club): 6 hands - 65%
JJ+, A9s: 21 hands (ignoring AA) - 90%

B) total equity:
My answer: 60% equity, see below for "details"

I think this is equivalent to

29 hands with 50% equity, 6 hands with 65, 9 hands with 90%

or

29 hands with 50%, 15 hands with 80% (should be 30-15 if we add the other AA)

or

2 hands 50%, 1 hand 80%

My final answer: 60% equity


C) With A9, you have 18 more hands in the 10% group. I think the final answer would be around 35%, but I'm doing this quickly (I'd say 2/3 of hands we have globally a 50% equity, 1/3 about 10%)

D) number of hands in a given group of hands, equity against that group



Now let's see if my answers are ridiculous. BTW it took me a while to compute this, I wouldn't do that at the table.

Edit: results in white vs a
JJ+,99-88,44,AcKc,A9s,QcJc,JTs,98s,76s,6c5c range

<font color="white"> AA: 61%, A9: 28% (A9s=34%, A9o=26%)
not too bad I guess </font>

[CrazyLond]

A) A9, A8, 9T, TJ, TT, JJ, 44, 88, 99, many Ax and connecting club possibilities. I think with QQ, KK or the other AA the typical player will typically have reraised preflop or led out or check-raised on flop with 2 clubs on board. With 89 I'd also usually expect either a bet or check-raise on flop. Sets are probably strong enough for a simple check-call even with 2 clubs on board.

B) Against entire range I'm probably 60% favorite. This is a calculation I would never normally make because I'm getting to see the turn card which will obviously alter the figure.

C) With A9, I'm probably about 50/50.

D) With AA, I am ahead of almost everything in my range except a set. I am 90% against TT, JJ, A9 or A8. I'm 80% against 9T and 75% against TJ(not clubs). I'm 65% against flush draws with no pairs or straight draws. Flush draws with other possibilities(pair or straight draw) seem like the most likely holding since there are so many variations possible. A few of these would be favored against me and the rest I'd be only a very slight favorite against. I'd say 50% of the hands I'm against are these, so 50/50 there. I'd say another 45% are the hands I mentioned above where on average, I'm about 75/25. The other 5% of the time I'm up against a set and am a 9-1 dog. 0.5(0.5)+0.45(0.75)+0.05(0.1) = 0.25+0.3375+0.005 = 59%. I did use a calculator for this, but my initial impulse was 60%. I'm not going to break it down for A9 but I'm now also a dog against TT and JJ, I'm even money with A9 and not as big a favorite against any flush draw with overcards to the 9 or to TJ. I'm also now drawing almost dead to a set but this doesn't factor in much since I was drawing slim anyway. I'd estimate my total chances of winning with A9 around 50%.

[Noam Chomsky]

he's calling with mid-high flush draws, some mid pairs, a few straight draws maybe a top pair here or there and even an overpair once or twice. our equity has to be about 75% cause a good chunk of his range is drawing to 2 or fewer outs.

With A9 I guess we're closer to flipping cause lots of the flush draws and half of the straight draws also have two overs.