Gus' 6,4 Hearts Call Against Tony G on PAD

[chicken10der]

If Gus takes 1/3 of his stack to call, then he can push on the flop for the size of the pot (which is 2x 1/3 of his stack, or his remaining 2/3 starting stack).

Say Tony raised with A9 in that spot. Flop comes KQ3. Gus pushes. Does he call a pot-size all in bet with A-hi? You have to realize that Tony doesn't have to have a hand as strong as AK in that spot. What if he had pocket 7's and the KQ3 flop hits? Still calling? You have to put someone on a range of hands, not one specific hand.

[redCashion]

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His chip stack was so low he had no power there.

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The stop n go is best used in exactly that situation, when you are so short chipped that you hold no fold equity preflop. If Gus reraises preflop, Tony is probably going to call even with a hand much weaker than AK. Giving Tony a chance to see (and usually miss) the flop, and representing that you hit it increases your fold equity.

[theman]

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If Gus takes 1/3 of his stack to call, then he can push on the flop for the size of the pot (which is 2x 1/3 of his stack, or his remaining 2/3 starting stack).

Say Tony raised with A9 in that spot. Flop comes KQ3. Gus pushes. Does he call a pot-size all in bet with A-hi? You have to realize that Tony doesn't have to have a hand as strong as AK in that spot. What if he had pocket 7's and the KQ3 flop hits? Still calling? You have to put someone on a range of hands, not one specific hand.

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Ok, i can accept part of that explanation as good (for myself anyways...). but my only problem is that it's still not an ideal situation for doubling up or getting a few more chips. i'd much rather call or go all-in with strength.

the other reason i don't like it is that even if Tony has an A9 hand there, i think he still possibly calls on a KQ7 flop. first it's Tony and second (and more importantly), it's not that much (even if it's a pot sized bet) compared to his chip stack. Tony had a huge chip lead over Gus at that point and could easily afford to call no matter what hits. that call is made easier by the fact that it's Gus and that fact he could also either beat Gus on turn/river and/or his hand was already beating Gus.

i dunno. ....i'm sure that's an "ok" reason. but i don't like the play...that's all i'm saying. i felt Gus' chip stack didn't merit that play.

as for the range of hands you can put Tony on...i agree, he did't have to have that good of a hand to raise. no disagreement there. even taking that into account, i don't like Gus' move in that specific situation. not enough long-term equity. too unnecessarily risky.

-TheMan
(thanks for the feedback though)

[Rottersod]

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...i don't like Gus' move in that specific situation. not enough long-term equity. too unnecessarily risky.

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Please explain what you mean by "not enough long term equity" and why a poker pro who can easily afford to win or lose the full $120,000 would be influenced by it in a 3 handed, high blind situation, with the short-stack (edit: in a winner take all event).

[List]

I think it's pretty bad. Tony G was generally playing very tight. While he will fold some high card hands on the flop, he'll be calling with big aces, draws, and any pair. I think those makes up enough of his range that pushing that flop is bad. In fact I think, given stack/pot sizes, there are very few flops that Gus can profitably push in this situation, which is why the preflop call is bad. I'd rather he pulled the play with a hand that's more likely to be good post flop, or has more equity when called on the flop.

[redCashion]

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I think it's pretty bad. Tony G was generally playing very tight. While he will fold some high card hands on the flop, he'll be calling with big aces, draws, and any pair. I think those makes up enough of his range that pushing that flop is bad. In fact I think, given stack/pot sizes, there are very few flops that Gus can profitably push in this situation, which is why the preflop call is bad. I'd rather he pulled the play with a hand that's more likely to be good post flop, or has more equity when called on the flop.

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You realize his M was like at 5 or 6 right? How long is he supposed to wait when 3 handed?

[Fels krone]

I think some people fail to realize how fast the blinds go up at the end of PAD. It turns into a crap shoot; faulting Gus's play because he should have waited for better cards is kind of ridiculous.

[theman]

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...i don't like Gus' move in that specific situation. not enough long-term equity. too unnecessarily risky.

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Please explain what you mean by "not enough long term equity" and why a poker pro who can easily afford to win or lose the full $120,000 would be influenced by it in a 3 handed, high blind situation, with the short-stack (edit: in a winner take all event).

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Well, I dunno, I'm not a great math/probability guy. I could be wrong, but the "stop-n-go" tactic seems like a play that's got -EV overall...It requires too much to go your way to be worth the risk in my opinion...

a.) You're hoping Tony G doesn't have a hand (any pair or two big cards)..because if he does, he's going to call anything on flop with his stack vs. Gus'.

b.) You're hoping even if Tony G doesn't have anything that he doesn't now hit something on flop.

Half the time, let's say Tony has something...Well, on flop he's gonna call with any pair or two overs. The other half when he has nothing, he's gonna hit that flop 1/3 of the time and call. ...So only a small minority of the time will Tony not call Gus. And with Gus 6,4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] being such a dog and having to call 1/3 of your stack pre-flop with it when you're the ultra short stack...it doesn't make much good sense to me. I know it's a "play"...but I don't like it personally.

I think that play compared to calling or going all in with a better hand (even J-high) is much better overall and will have more equity.

-TheMan

[Suigin406]

^^ to the above theman post...

the blinds were getting high and he can't sit around for a hand...i understand tony g might call there, but most of the time, that flop won't hit him, and there's a good chance that will force him out when gus pushes on the flop...in this case, i think the odds were too good and tony g couldn't fold, but a lot of the time, it's a good play short handed with very high blinds...

[theman]

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^^ to the above theman post...

the blinds were getting high and he can't sit around for a hand...i understand tony g might call there, but most of the time, that flop won't hit him, and there's a good chance that will force him out when gus pushes on the flop...in this case, i think the odds were too good and tony g couldn't fold, but a lot of the time, it's a good play short handed with very high blinds...

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Yeah, I do understand the logic and the play, but as I said in my above post, I think that situation wasn't the right one to use it in. I gave some math reasons also for why I felt Gus couldn't get Tony to fold and it would be rare Gus could win with that play the majority of the time.

-TheMan