Silly TD2-7 Theory Question

[MarkGritter]

Well, we seem to have some divergence of opinion. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

This situation can (of course) be analyzed using game theory. Doing so shows that there is a small advantage for the second player. (I believe this arises from him being able to value-bet more of his T's and J's than the first player can, but there may be other factors.)

Game-theoretic strategies for the first and second player can be found here:

http://wiki.lowballgurus.com/article....3D_8_big_bets

Because the pot is so large, this strategy specifies first-player bluffs only with his worst card (a 7) and a small percentage of 4's. It also calls for some check-raise bluffs with paired 2's.

Since Teddy can adopt the game-theoretic strategy and earn about 0.085 bets by acting second, playing the button is worth at least $170 compared with a chop. That means you should charge no less than $340 for it--- so $600 is actually the closest answer in the quiz and will provide you with a tidy profit, should you choose to also follow the game-theoretic strategy.

I'm not going to claim this is the only answer. You might, for example, be concerned with lowering your variance here and be willing to sacrifice some equity to do so. I'm not sure whether being first or second would help you.

But, if Teddy sticks to the game-theoretic strategy, he will (in the long run) win at least $170 acting second and lose no more than $170 acting first.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I charge him as much as I think he'll pay, but I don't believe it's worth that much. Checking in the dark is clearly worse than getting to act last, but not like $1000 worth. I think $200 sounds about right but can't prove it.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I put 2k down because I want to stick it to him. I don't know what it is worth, but I think 200 is not a horible guess. We can work this out though. This is very simple (but tedious, so I am not going to do it right now, cuz I suck like that.)

This is bascially a one card showdown problem if someone else wants to do the math. Teddy has a slight advantage in that he can remember his previous discards so he has a better idea of the distribution in the stub.

Edit - Awesome, Mark already did the math. LAZINESS WINS AGAIN!!!