Force1's ways to win at Survivor Football

[gusmahler]

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You're goal in survivor is to survive to the next week, do not worry about later weeks games as someone will always be playing OAK [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Not in week 3. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Force1]

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Well I think the other large favorites were playing inter-divisional games which goes against Force's rule #3.

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San Diego played at home against Tennessee and was a 10.5 point favorite.

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What is your point I don't get it? So what you are saying is that my rules correctly picked SD to blow out Tenn and also correctly forcasted that the Den/KC was not a good game to pick? BAL,SD,IND were all good picks I gave the nod to Indy as they have never lost to the Texans but all those were solid picks, the point of the post isnt to nesacarilly tell you which teams you should of picked but more of laid out a ground work of how to be succesful when picking your survivor team for the weak.

SD was at home, against a non divisional foe, and was a big favorite it follows my rules to the T.

[gusmahler]

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Well I think the other large favorites were playing inter-divisional games which goes against Force's rule #3.

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San Diego played at home against Tennessee and was a 10.5 point favorite.

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What is your point I don't get it?

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My point is simple. You list 3 rules. 2 games meet the rules to a T. Yet you pick a different game in week 2 that doesn't meet 1 rule and say that "should" have been the week 2 pick. IOW, I'm just nitpicking. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Force1]

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San Diego played at home against Tennessee and was a 10.5 point favorite. This meets the rules better than the Ind game did.

The other 10 point games were:
Hou @ Ind (divisional)
Cle @ Cin (divisional)
Oak @ Bal (meets the criteria)

Honorable mention for
Det @ Chi (8.5 point line)

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Yes, all these games were close to me so I went with the when in doubt take the ML rule. Because all those teams were 10pt favs, and Indy was 13.5 pt favs I thought that outweighted the divisional foe rule.

In week 2 though its pretty hard to make a bad pick unless there is just a huge,huge upset there is no reason to not make it past week 2. Once you hit week 7-8 is when the rules will really benefit you as you will be required to make harder decisions.

[MacGuyV]

Agree mostly, a lot of it is common sense. In addition to division rivalries I also try to avoid picking teams coming off a short week when I need to determine a "tiebreaker". The only rule I don't follow is saving teams. I'm not saying you should go out of your way to save the Colts, but when they have 3 easy home games left and the Ravens/Bengals are playing their last really easy home game of the season in Week 2 it's hard to pass up one of the latter teams IMO. If those teams had easier schedule I would've taken the Colts. Last year I noticed the same thing about the Packers' schedule in week 2 (easiest home game on the slate!) and of course they lost to the Browns at home. Still, I did the same thing this year because I'm stubborn and it payed off this time. Agree Miami is the clear pick this week.

[HajiShirazu]

Yeah, that's a good theory I guess, sure you can only pick a team to win once, but you can pick against a team any number of times, and GB, TEN, OAK, and HOU on the road make for 32 possiblities between them (unless they play each other somewhere.)

[Force1]

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you can pick against a team any number of times, and GB, TEN, OAK, and HOU on the road make for 32 possiblities between them

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Basically this is how I see it...
5 "excellent" (PIT,IND,NE)teams that could beat anybody in the league at home
10 "good" (DAL,SD)teams that will beat most of the 'ok' teams at home and beat all the 'bad' teams at home, and obv. destroy all the 'terrible' teams
7 "ok" teams (KC,BUF,NO) these teams will beat most of the bad teams at home and beat all the terrible teams at home but lose to about 70% of the 'good' teams at home, and lose to all the "excellent" teams.
5 'bad teams' (CLE,DET) These teams will beat about 50% of the 'ok' teams at home and beat about 90% of the terrible teams at home
5 'terrible teams' (GB,OAK,HOU) these teams have trouble beating anybody.

I never save teams because there is always at least an 'ok' team playing a 'terrible' team. This is where Survivor leagues are won and lost in the later weeks by being able to correctly pick the right "good" vs "bad" matchup or "ok" vs "terrible" matchup.

Always pick games at least 2 tiers away from eachtother exspecailly in the early weeks. There is never a reason in Weeks 1-6 to take a "excellent" team vs a good team or an 'ok' team vs an 'ok' team not even 'ok' vs 'bad'

Whew... I hope this makes sense...took me a while to type [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TMTTR]

So does that mean the Dolphins are the clear choice for week 3?

[Force1]

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So does that mean the Dolphins are the clear choice for week 3?

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Yes, I think MIA is the safest pick in week 3. By the rules they are at home, non div. game, big ML favs.

My rec pick
Week 3-Miami
Week 3 "stay away" games-BUF,IND,DET,AZ,NE
Week 3 alt picks if for some reason you don't like MIA....AZ,NE,DET,IND note: This is a tough week for survivor as all 4 of my alt picks are on my stay away list. I think DET is the safest pick out of all these, as they are playing the weakest opp. but it is a divisional game but the only non-div game is NE/DEN and thats just not a very good survivor game to pick. BUF has to show consintensy before I'll pick them even against a bad team, NE is playing DEN who really needs to have a good game before the wheels fall off. AZ should beat StL at home but you never know with the cards.

[MacGuyV]

I think NE would be my 2nd choice. Home revenge game in primetime, Denver unimpressive so far, plus the Brady vs. Plummer factor.