Ace on the turn

[Guitierez]

Yea, the replies are unanimous b/f.

This is exactly the kind of leak I'm working on, and why my W2SD% doesen't drop below 36%: I get married to big pairs and TPTK.

I was raised by UTG+1 and made a crying call, we got it HU where I luckboxed a 3rd K. But most of the time you dont hit your two-outer (duh!).

[neurotiq]

I'd bet into this turn.

[bravos1]

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I'd bet into this turn.

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What if he raises?
What is your river plan if he calls?

[KaatzMeow]

Super Grunch

Preflop: We have the second best hand, we raise for value.

Flop: We still have top pair and I bet for value again and if raised I would call and re-evaluate on the turn.

Turn: I would bet since no one has shown us a better hand. If raised I would call and check/call the river.

[CrMenace]

SUPER GRUNCH

PF: Raising KK PF -- awesome!!! For this to be a true super grunch do I have to say why? Very strong hand, blah blah blah.

Flop: Bet is good. That flop was very unlikely to have hit anyone. Continue to get value for your hand.

Turn: I think an A is relatively likely in your opponents hands: An A-high FD is a good candidate, A7 of course, and something like AJo who couldn't find a fold on the flop. There's also the slow-played 3. My strategy here is the same, though -- bet out, and be prepared to fold, especially if there are still two active villains at the time of the raise.

River: If you're not raised on turn, be prepared to bet a safe river. I'd probably c/c a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

The above are read dependent and I'd b/f them more often with LPP opponents.

[MrWookie]

Why do you include only A7 and NFDs in their ranges and not worse 7s and PPs? Why does KQo fold the flop when AJo can't? Why would you c/c a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river?

[00Snitch]

[ QUOTE ]

Yea, the replies are unanimous b/f


[/ QUOTE ]

nahnotrly.

I don't think this is a question of whether to bet or check the turn, it's what to do after you bet.

If you bet, UTG raises and it comes back to you HU, getting 10:1, you have to be pretty sure this guy can't be bluffing/semi-bluffing. Even if he bets the river (which he won't always do) you are getting odds that mean you have to be ~85% sure you are beat to fold.

If UTG calls and CO raises, you can probably fold.

If UTG raises and CO cold-calls you can definatly fold.

Strangly enough, since moving to 6-max, I have been trying to increase my WTSD (as opposed to OP lowering his), so perhaps I'm calling too often here?

[CrMenace]

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet, UTG raises and it comes back to you HU, getting 10:1, you have to be pretty sure this guy can't be bluffing/semi-bluffing. Even if he bets the river (which he won't always do) you are getting odds that mean you have to be ~85% sure you are beat to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if UTG raises, he's expecting at least one of you to call; ergo he is likely not bluffing, you are toast.

[CrMenace]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you include only A7 and NFDs in their ranges and not worse 7s and PPs? Why does KQo fold the flop when AJo can't? Why would you c/c a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn getting a gold star is hard.

On the turn hand range I probably wasn't clear -- I was trying to convince myself what I would do if raised on the turn. I don't mean to imply villain's range is limited to the hands I listed, just that if raised on the turn it is very believable that they have a hand that beats us. i.e. there are many examples of legitimate hands that call the flop and then raise the turn.

Regarding KQo -- I dunno, since Ax holds up UI more than Kx, I figure villains are more likely to call down with it?

I c/c the heart on the river as a FD, a pp and the 7 are the only good reasons left for two villains to be calling down that we beat. If the FD goes away, I think our chances of winning are way down and since I don't know how I would react to a raise I'm more inclined to c/c. I also would like to see what the action is before I act. BTW -- this plan changes if I have a good read on the villains. If they are loose passive I would value bet here as they will often have a worse holding.

[MrWookie]

The questions you need to ask yourself on a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] river are, "How often do I expect my opponent to bet w/o a frush?" "How often do I expect him to raise my river bet w/o a frush?" and "How often do I expect him to call my river bet w/o a frush?"