Iran Assessment

[John21]

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Most assessments I've read say its closer to 10 years.

[/ QUOTE ]That's probably true if they're working on their own. But I think we're working under the assumption that they are getting help.

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure what cutting off the blood flow from Iran to Syria means.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just a supply-line.

[John21]

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On a side note, I think China's anti-satellite missle test has quite a lot to do with the situation in Iran.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully it was just a try it before they(Iran) buy it demo.

[CTKid]

The only way it is possible for the United States to enter into an overt regime-change offensive with Iran is if a catastrophic event in terms of national security and American casualties can be undeniably linked to the Iranian regime.

Short of that, the most that could ever be rationalized by the President to congress and the public are air strikes on nuclear facilities or covert operations to feed a revolution.

Is the "blood flow" from Iran to Iraq enough to convince anyone that the US should engage in another overt offensive? I doubt it.

[morphball]

How often does the US build up a military presence and not attack? The only example I can think of is NATO forces in Europe, but the Soviets had the bomb. Do you think the US wants to have to treat Iran like it did the Soviets and now North Korea? I don't know, but I think it's more likely than not that we attack Iran after Israel starts it.

[Duals21]

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The only way it is possible for the United States to enter into an overt regime-change offensive with Iran is if a catastrophic event in terms of national security and American casualties can be undeniably linked to the Iranian regime

[/ QUOTE ]

Can anyone think of any examples in our history where we invaded and occupied a sovereign nation without an undeniable link to a catastrophic event causing American casualties.

[Stu Pidasso]

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Can anyone think of any examples in our history where we invaded and occupied a sovereign nation without an undeniable link to a catastrophic event causing American casualties.

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We've done that every few years since the early 1980s.
Lets see
Greneda
Panama
Haiti
Gulf War I
Gulf War II

I probably missed something.

Stu

[CTKid]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Can anyone think of any examples in our history where we invaded and occupied a sovereign nation without an undeniable link to a catastrophic event causing American casualties.

[/ QUOTE ]

We've done that every few years since the early 1980s.
Lets see
Greneda
Panama
Haiti
Gulf War I
Gulf War II

I probably missed something.

Stu

[/ QUOTE ]

This is obv. My point is that at this time, the political climate at home is so anti-war, so anti-escalation and so anti-bush that it would take something catastrophic to change their minds.

[Duals21]

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This is obv. My point is that at this time, the political climate at home is so anti-war, so anti-escalation and so anti-bush that it would take something catastrophic to change their minds.

[/ QUOTE ]

The political climate is ALWAYS anti-war before a Presidential administration starts selling the idea. Nobody wanted to invade Iraq, for example, until they were treated with months and months of propaganda. After hearing "we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud" and similar enough times, the American people were genuinely scared for their lives. In a lot of ways Iran is more of a legitimate threat to our security than Iraq is, if the Government can sell the war in Iraq (twice) then I don't see why it couldn't sell a war with Iran. We already have 120 (now 140) thousand troops in Iraq, and if an invasion of Iran was coupled with a reduction of troops in Iraq it would be more politically palatable. Note that the ISG report didn't recommend withdrawal as a final goal, it recommended redeployment...

[boracay]

[ QUOTE ]
This is obv. My point is that at this time, the political climate at home is so anti-war, so anti-escalation and so anti-bush that it would take something catastrophic to change their minds.

[/ QUOTE ]

months of propaganda, then just give a green light to israelis. iran's response would take some american lives. war would become 'legitimated' and with corporative media control noone would be against this war anymore.

most convinient time: march-may 2008. it won't happen this year IMO.

[cwsiggy]

This article makes it seem like our whole Navy will be wiped out by Iran's supply of Russian made anti ship missles - I find it quite hard to believe our Generals are that stupid and haven't planned a counter to this.....

http://www.informationclearinghouse....rticle7147.htm