#11
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] bet > check [/ QUOTE ] maybe if we had total air, but not when we have almost no FE but do u have a gutshot and 5 outs [/ QUOTE ] Almost no FE? History dictates that Villain views OP as an aggressive bluffy 3 bettor. As shown when OP 4bet bluff/fold. Because of that, villain is going to call flop cbets really light in rr pots. So anyways... Effective stacks 2234$ Villain folds EV=$1390 Pokerstove if Villain calls and Hero is behind Note:This range is assuming villain doesn't call light Board: 5h 9d Qs 7d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 18.636% 18.64% 00.00% 369 0.00 { 7c6c } Hand 1: 81.364% 81.36% 00.00% 1611 0.00 { QQ+, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo } So we have a 18% equity once villain calls EV of us pushing and being called EV=(.18)(4468)+(.82)(-1554) EV=804.24-1274.28 EV=-470.04 Neutral EV when shoving where Fold equity=x EV=0 0=-1390x+(1-x)(-470.04) 0=-1390x-470.04+470.04x 0=1860.04-470.04 470.04=1860.04x x=25% [/ QUOTE ] You also have to calculate the EV of checking as well since checking has an EV >0. I'm too lazy to do this though. |
#12
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
What I was trying saying was that villain will probably peel [censored] hands on flop and c/f turns.
Calculating the EV of checking? Hmm.. I'll be back... |
#13
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
I don't know how to do it. Someone please point out where I went wrong.
Ev of checking and villain shoving river 100% EV=(.18)(4468) EV=804$ Now we need to find out how often does he has to shove river for us to make it neutral EV where x= the % of time he shoves river 0=(804$)(x)+(1-x)(1390) 0=804x+1390-1390x 586x=1390 x=237% So we need him to shove river 247% of the time [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Yea I know I did something wrong |
#14
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
screw him shove
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#15
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
This is much better than checking
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#16
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
my line here is to shove, run into a set, then river gutshot
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#17
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
No one seemed to answer the question of what he folds here... TT/JJ?
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#18
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
[ QUOTE ]
my line here is to shove, run into a set, then river gutshot [/ QUOTE ] |
#19
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
how about betting like 600 and rest on the river. it's like the reverse installment plan.
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#20
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Re: 10/20 3 bet pot 2nd barrel?
[ QUOTE ]
how about betting like 600 and rest on the river. it's like the reverse installment plan. [/ QUOTE ] He is not folding river. |
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