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#1
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
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I had to post because of your Avatar, which is awesome. As for your check-raise...seems like a decent idea to me. [/ QUOTE ] you are an intelligent person in at least a couple respects. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
#2
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
If I am CO, I don't ever ever ever fold an ace here. You better be prepared to barrel that river. I'd much rather c/r this flop in your spot.
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#3
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
Checkraising the flop is so much better here. Fish's call could mean anything but your c/r of both fish and PFR says a lot more than a huhu flop checkraise would.
The problem with checkraising the turn is this is the kind of board where once he bets the turn he has a range of hands that almost never folds (i.e. hands that would fold to a turn c/r would have checked behind) |
#4
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
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Checkraising the flop is so much better here. Fish's call could mean anything but your c/r of both fish and PFR says a lot more than a huhu flop checkraise would. [/ QUOTE ] mostly true. for that reason i mostly agree. [ QUOTE ] The problem with checkraising the turn is this is the kind of board where once he bets the turn he has a range of hands that almost never folds (i.e. hands that would fold to a turn c/r would have checked behind) [/ QUOTE ] this is not mostly true. he's plenty aggro enough to bet an ace, a pp, a draw or complete air in that spot. |
#5
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
I don't like it much. You'd never take this line if you had an ace (would you really just check and call the flop if you could've gotten all that c/r value from the fish and the board has a flush draw on it and a possible straight draw? You're a TAG, you would go for the immediate value on a board with draws if you had an ace or a set. The only time you could play it this way is when you hit your straight on the turn), so why would he ever fold anything that beats you here? I usually call these weird check-raises out of curiosity. So you probably have the bet the river as well if you miss, and he is likely to call that as well.
I'd prefer the good old c/r flop, lead turn line. If you don't do that, I would just call the turn and give up UI. Perhaps that's weak. |
#6
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
Did this quick. I think the math is accurate. Feel free to critique:
Times he folds: +X(5.75BB) Times he doesn’t fold and you hit: +(100-X)(12/45)(7.75BB) Times he doesn’t fold and you don’t hit: -(100-X)(33/45)(2BB) X=% of time he folds to your turn raise 5.75X+(100-X)2.07-(100-X)1.47 5.75X+207-2.07X-147+1.47X 5.15X+60 X=11.65% If he folds 12% of the time, this play is good. The math ignores the times you get 3-bet by AA and the times he calls and you spike a K and beat his QQ/JJ for whatever reason, but those situation happen a small % of the time. I really feel like we don't do enough math here and just speculate alot in SSHE. |
#7
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
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If I am CO, I don't ever ever ever fold an ace here. [/ QUOTE ] nor would i necessarily expect him to. come on. you think he's only betting aces here? |
#8
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws. Given the pot size and the number of outs you have to a redraw, this probably only needs to work a small percentage of the time, I'm wagering 10% or less. Someone else want to do the math?
To be honest, this question is just best done as math. If we can say that all we need is for him to fold XX% of the time and A3s/A2s/KK-JJ constitute that part of his range, this is easily a good play, because it doesn't even account for the times that a villain is willing to fold AJ/AQ.(PokerBob might not do it, but it happens). Less speculation, more math, KTHX. |
#9
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
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nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws [/ QUOTE ] Against a good, tricky, agressive player like James, there's no way the villain should fold these hands. -McGee |
#10
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Re: Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws [/ QUOTE ] Against a good, tricky, agressive player like James, there's no way the villain should fold these hands. -McGee [/ QUOTE ] Where do you see a read/history in the OP? I don't. |
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