AA 160bb deep (50 NL)

[members_only]

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Guys, you can't just say c/f or c/c.. it depends on bet size and timing. Say he bets 14, we still fold?

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Come back for the next installment tomorrow!

Thanks for the replies so far guys, keep 'em coming

[NL Newbie]

I bet turn.

[members_only]

Turn: ($48.50) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $19.50

What now?

[achtzhen]

Just walking through the hand.

PF: Great rr

F: U must c-bet and u did it very strongly. nice
You have the bdfd and nut st8 possibilities.

T: On this turn I feel that you should have been the one makeing the bet of half pot here. You get r easy fold. Now I say betting out is best because I feel that you have to call villain's bet anyways on this blank turn.

Truly a tough spot, well imo its cheaper to get out of trouble if your setting the price.

[scallop]

What a [censored] spot.

Villian surely raises any hand that isnt AJ/[HANDS WE BEAT] on the flop ? But hands we beat, even with his 42 VPIP, dont really had up to anything sizeable in his range.

Like QT beats us, but surely he raises this on the flop... and he can call pf with somethign like this.

I mean purely from his range, other than AJ I thik he raises alsmot anyhand he wants to play.

[yntm3]

I bet out turn a little over half pot and fold to a raise. If he calls we check and hope for a showdown.

[thac]

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Turn: ($48.50) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $19.50

What now?

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I mean, I guess I call, spike the queen, and shove. Sounds like a good line to me.

[Lostit]

This is such a draw heavy board that I think I put him on a draw or Ax here. I think you're ahead of his range about 2/3's of the time. He's 43/24 preflop, so if this was KK or QQ, I think he repops preflop. That leaves me with 10 10, KQ or AJ that fit his pattern and that worry me. More likely I put him on AK, or AQ, or a pocket pair that floated you on the flop.

You said he's a 1.5 post flop aggression. How often does he call? On my PAHUD display I have aggression by street, but right under that I have fold % for every street matched with the aggression. I've seen lots of calling stations with low aggression factors in that 1.5 range, that will still call everything. Its important to know that side of their post flop game also.

After that $19 bet on the turn, I either fold or push, no call here for me. I personally would have bet $30 on the turn. Not sure if I could fold to a re-raise but I might. You said you've seen one or two donkish things from him, but thats only 75 hands. I think he might call you down with AK or AQ here.

[members_only]

Ok results in case you're interested

Turn: ($48.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $19.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $59.15 and is All-In</font>, BTN calls $39.65

River: ($166.80) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $166.80 Pot ($2 Rake)
BTN showed J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$83.15 NET)
Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON $164.80 (+$81.65 NET)

I posted this hand largely because I wasn't very happy with my thought process during it. Pre-flop is obviously fine. On the flop I thought [censored] that's a bad flop... but I'd better c-bet it anyway... hard because it's drawy as well...

Then on the turn after he called I thought oh [censored] um check I guess... ffs, I'm not folding to that... ok I shove

As it turned out this line probably got me max value, but I think I was quite lucky. In retrospect I think I should have either decided to go with it on the turn and bet out about $35 or checked with the intention of folding (or maybe betting a blank river if he checked behind.) Or at least decided that c/rai was the best way of getting value.

Interesting to see though that some of you advocate the check-and-see-what-he-does as a tactic in its own right, maybe there is some merit to it (seems sort of lame though as all you're really doing is looking for a bet-sizing tell.)

Scallop, I agree with you, you would have thought he'd raise almost anything that beats us on the flop. Maybe that should incline us towards playing for value on the turn

Lostit, I probably don't look at street-by-street aggression stats enough but as you yourself say 76 hands isn't a lot and I'm pretty sure it's not enough to tell you much that's meaningful about people's flop and turn play in deep 3-bet pots

Last thing... does anyone like a flop check?

[bozzer]

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Last thing... does anyone like a flop check?

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i do. it's quite conservative, but i don't think our equity is great enough to be concerned about 'protecting', and i actually think it makes the hand easier to play.