Bills +17 at NE

[MacGuyV]

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I know this sounds very BSP-like, but is there really any way a team should be this huge of a dog to any other team in the NFL?

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Yes

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I realize that NE has been creaming their competition and are playing at home, but BUF lost by the closest of margins to DEN(who would probably be a single-digit dog to NE in the same situation).

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Denver outgained Buffalo huge in that game, but had trouble getting in the end zone, and gave up a punt return touchdown.

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Does this line sound right

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Yup

Keep in mind Buffalo lost whatshisname at CB in free agency to the 49ers and began the season with what was considered a suspect secondary before being hammered with injuries in week 1.

I believe that with divisional teams that know each other better, 'anything can happen', but I sure wouldn't put anything behind Buffalo in this one. And since New England seems to be reacting to the whole cheatergate thing with an air of self righteousness, I wonder if the chances of them staying focused for a lesser opponent after a big televised game aren't higher than normal.

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That's not a bad analysis.

I don't think their secondary injuries are that major; they chose not to re-sign Clements because the "Tampa 2" de-values CB play to an extent. Plus the drop-offs from Webster-Greer and Simpson-Leonard are slim to none IMO. Of course it hurts their depth when NE decides to spread the field. The big disappointment so far defensively has been the pass-rush; Aaron Schobel has been invisible. We knew the run defense would stink.

Offensively, I don't know. They were supposed to be at least average, but they have sucked so far. The OL is improved, and Lynch is the real deal. Basically teams are taking away Evans deep and asking Losman what else he can do...so far the answer is nothing.

I don't have much of an opinion on this game, so I'll stop rambling. I guess I'd take the points.

[27offsuit]

I'm a huge homer and am actually going to the game for a change.

That being said, I would never lay 17. Here are my reasons, FWIW:

Divisional matchup.
NE weather will not be a factor.
Buffalo as a team is coming together this week with an us-againt-the-world mentality.
This line is inflated because people like my mother-in-law are now talking about how NE will win by 17 easy.
17 pts in the NFL is a bad bet regardless of the matchup.
and finally
If BUF scores one TD, NE need to score 4 times and 3 have to be TDs........just to push.


This is not to say the can't completely dominate BUF. I'm just saying it's a bad bet no matter how you slice it.


Here's what you have to ask yourself.

Will BUF score 13 pts?
If yes, NE needs to score 5 times and mostly TDs.

Will NE be using Maroney a bit more this week?
I would think so.


Will Belichick be doing things this week like scoring a TD on a 4th and goal from the 2 up 31-14 in the 4th because he thinks LT is a little bitch? I don't think so.

I see a balanced attack this week with a lot of sustained drives and clock management.



Just one mans opinion. This game has back door cover written all over it...

[Sevenfold]

I was all over the Pats the first two games. They have improved on both sides of of the ball. It's a joke how much their wide receiver core has improved.

If this game were the Super Bowl, I'd lay the 17. But it's not.

This game is Ho-Hum in New England. Sure, they will win, but will they care enough to play through 4 quarters and cover 17? Not likely.

Game 1 was against the Jets, who they dislike.

Game 2 was against San Diego, who whined that they should have won last years playoff game (and would of if the retard who made the 4th Qtr-4th down interception would have fallen down instead of trying to run with it). That and video-tape gate had them with an 'us against the world' mentality.

Game 3 (this week) is against 0-2 Buffalo. Yawn.

Game 4 the following week is another national TV game, a Monday nighter against Cincy.

Classic sandwich game.

Take the 17.

Caveat: Big Pats fan---Plus I don't usually bet games with high spreads.

[ActionTodd]

currently Bills+16

will it go any lower? to like Bill+14

will that make a diff?

[NajdorfDefense]

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I was all over the Pats the first two games. They have improved on both sides of of the ball. It's a joke how much their wide receiver core has improved.

If this game were the Super Bowl, I'd lay the 17. But it's not.

This game is Ho-Hum in New England. Sure, they will win, but will they care enough to play through 4 quarters and cover 17? Not likely.

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This is an excellent point. My forecast is 24-6 in the 4th and Buf gets a backdoor cover late.

Of course, NE's Off could go ballistic again, but I'm willing to take that risk. I see a lot more Maroney and company on the ground. SDG's weakness was Pass D, you'd be nuts to try to run all over Merriman, Williams and crew.

Esp when they don't cover Moss on fly patterns.

[rjp]

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currently Bills+16

will it go any lower? to like Bill+14

will that make a diff?

[/ QUOTE ]15 and 16 are relatively dead numbers compared to 14 and 17, so if you're going to bet the Bills you want at a minimum 14.5.

[West]

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2003:

@ buff, buff wins 31-0
@ NE, NE wins 31-0

2004:

@ buff, NE wins 31-17
@ NE, NE wins 29-6

2005:

@ NE, NE wins 21-16
@ Buff, NE wins 35-7

2006:

@ NE, NE wins 19-17
@ Buff, NE wins 28-6

NE seems to squeak out a close one in their first meetings, whether it be home or away, then destroy them in the 2nd, i like buff +17 decent

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Interesting, I guess Belichick gets all the signals figured out by the second game and then it's curtains, hehehe.

[West]

Lot of good points made. It may very well be that at that many points in this particular situation, Buffalo deserves attention, and I just personally don't know enough to like it.

[TomG]

I already have enough of Buffalo +17.5 -120. I am now considering getting more of Buffalo +17.5 -120 in anticipation of a middle attempt closer to game time. New England -16.0 -110 is enough for a +EV middle.

Edit: Problem is Buffalo +17.5 -120 is tough to find now...

[rjp]

Did you load up extra on Buf +17.5 -120 in aspirations of the middle? If so then good call, as there's no way that price was going to stick around. I've got a decent chunk of Buf +17.5 -130 and +17.5 -120, although I never planned to middle.