150/300 Badugi don't really know what I'm supposed to do

[DeathDonkey]

20:1.

-DeathDonkey

[Phat Mack]

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c/r or bet into him? I was later told to c/r the field here but I'm dumb so I just donk and he raises, both coldcallers fold as far as I remember. I am 3betting now or calling down?

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I lead out, as you did. Too many of the betters players at this level will check after the first draw, hoping for a free one.

Using the same theory, they'll raise while the bets are still cheap. I keep pounding before the second draw. Villain has position on you, and if he has some experience, he may be planning ahead in order to lay a so-so hand as cheaply as possible.


jmo

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Disregard the above. I didn't understand that there had been two draws.

If this is part of a mixed game at the Commerce, I still bet out and keep betting. If he caps, I might bet-call the end. (I think check-calling the end is an error with a pot this big.) If he caught a 3-outer to beat you (or possibly even a 2-outer if he was drawing down), so be it. I still like your hand in this situation.

[bozzer]

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At the same time Bayes tells us that if we are only a 8% favorite its a +EV bet the river even if we expect to have to call a raise. Since its safe to assume the hero is greater than an 8% favorite its fine to lead on the river if the turn stops at 4 bets.

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How does bayes tell us this?

[*TT*]

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At the same time Bayes tells us that if we are only a 8% favorite its a +EV bet the river even if we expect to have to call a raise. Since its safe to assume the hero is greater than an 8% favorite its fine to lead on the river if the turn stops at 4 bets.

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How does bayes tell us this?

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Bayes' Theorem. Bayes' Theorem is a topic for the Poker Theory forum IMHO, its applied as a general poker concept rather than a Badugi specific concept.