crockpot's baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)

[crockpot]

other assorted futures i took:

Tampa 100-1 to win division
Texas 10-1 to win division

the greek had an awesome line for the field to win NL pennant +645, with the field being DBacks Cubs Brewers Rockies Pirates Nats. great work if you could find it before it was bet down.

also there's a 'california team to win WS' prop at abcislands and badlands which is awesome not only because it's +EV but because they give you odds of 7-1 when the dodgers and angels are each 10-1 by themselves, with modest payoffs on the padres and a's too. low limit though.

[crockpot]

Cle +112 (3u)

i'm concerned that my numbers recommend so many plays today, but i figure the number will go down as the season progresses and the market adjusts.

[thing85]

I was bored, so I thought I'd check up on how the player props are doing as we have ~34 games left in the season.

Joe Blanton under 15.5 W - Currently has 11 wins; Assuming he doesn't win 5 of his last 6-7 starts, this one looks like a winner.

Ervin Santana under 15 W - This is either a win or a no action. He needs to make 3 more starts for this bet to have action, so we'll see if LA allows him to do that.

Jon Garland under 16.5 W - With only 8 wins right now, winner.

Gary Matthews Jr. under .302 BA - Barring some sort of supernatural heater, this one's a winner (he's batting .264 right now).

Bobby Jenks under 38 Sv - Despite how bad the Sox have been, this one is more likely a loser (36 saves right now).

Francisco Rodriguez over 1.90 ERA - 2.75 ERA currently, probably a winner.

Justin Morneau under 127 RBI - On pace for ~120 RBI, so this one could be close.

Mike Piazza over 59.5 RBI - No action (only 60 games played so far).

Takashi Saito under 35.5 Sv - Loser (36 saves)

Ben Sheets over 170 K - Loser or no action (probably needs to make all of his remaining starts for this to be actioned, with only 19 starts currently).

Huston Street over 2.24 ERA - Could be close, with a 2.78 ERA currently. Only has 35 IP, so it won't take much to bring that ERA down.

Justin Verlander under 15.5 W - With 14 wins right now, probably a loser.

Barry Zito under 16 W - Easy money (probably).

Not too bad overall. It looks like we're winning 7-8 of the 10-12 plays that will have action. If I have time later, I'll probably take a look at the team wins props.

[ImStillBen]

[ QUOTE ]
Ervin Santana under 15 W - This is either a win or a no action. He needs to make 3 more starts for this bet to have action, so we'll see if LA allows him to do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Santana, who threw 23 pitches, probably made his last start this season, as manager Mike Scioscia is expected to replace him in the rotation with Moseley." -ESPN

[thing85]

Yeah, the Santana one is probably no action. There's still the VERY small chance that Santana is effective in a bullpen role, Moseley fails miserably, and Santana is inserted back into the rotation for a final 3 starts. I highly doubt it though.

[volkin]

[ QUOTE ]



NL:
Peavy
Harang
Garcia
Hamels

yes, that would be jake peavy, probably the first person i draft if i'm in a pool to name this year's cy winner.

both of these are still 10-1 on bodog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks crock

[thing85]

wow, nh.

[Card08]

Single # 70943419
Baseball - MLB Player Props (Prop) Moneyline
(5395) Bob Melvin (ARI) 15/1 Sun@1:00p


Final Scores
Bob Melvin (ARI) 1
Bobby Cox (ATL) 0
Lou Piniella (CHC) 0
Jerry Narron (CIN) 0
Clint Hurdle (COL) 0
Fredi Gonzalez (FLA) 0
Phil Garner (HOU) 0
Grady Little (LAD) 0
Ned Yost (MIL) 0
Willie Randolph (NYM) 0
Charlie Manuel (PHI) 0
Jim Tracy (PIT) 0
Tony La Russa (STL) 0
Bud Black (SD) 0
Bruce Bochy (SF) 0
Manny Acta (WAS) 0

Bet this one in addition to AZ to win the NL. Was a nice hit.

-Card

Outcome:
Win

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
some 2007 props i like and have bet heavily:

White Sox under (insert number) W
Diamondbacks over 78.5 W
Dodgers under 88.5 W
Blue Jays under 87.5 W



[/ QUOTE ]

crockpot, thanks very much for this work, it looks awesome! what odds do you like these props down to? 5dimes has kept their opening numbers, but shifted the odds. they look like this:

Dbacks - over 78.5 -125
ChiSox - under 88.5 -180
LAD - under 88.5 -140
BJays - under 87 -130

any you still like there?

[MrFeelNothin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
some 2007 props i like and have bet heavily:

White Sox under (insert number) W
Diamondbacks over 78.5 W
Dodgers under 88.5 W
Blue Jays under 87.5 W



[/ QUOTE ]

crockpot, thanks very much for this work, it looks awesome!

[/ QUOTE ]

seconded, this is some really great analysis.


and it felt good for me personally to see someone more sophisticated than I on many of the same future bets. (rockies, dbacks, many of the player props.)