^^^Tue NCAAF--Memphis -2.5 v Marshall O/U 60.5^^^

[BobJoeJim]

Here's my breakdown of Memphis. Keep an eye on the dates of their last two games, as others have already pointed out.

Memphis (1-3):
9/1: 23-21 L vs. Mississippi (1-4) - Ole Miss jumped ahead 23-0, comeback attempt fell short on a failed 2 pt conversion with 31 seconds left. Memphis turned it over five times, ran 96(!) plays, won total yardage 467-275. Hankins 41/60 passing, 343 yards, TD, but 4 INTs. Defense held Ole Miss to 2.6 yards per carry.

9/15: 35-14 W vs. Jacksonville State - Steamrolled a AA opponent (35-7 until a garbage time TD with 25 seconds left). 485-392 advantage in total yards, Hankins 16/22 for 289 yds, 3 TD 1 INT. Jacksonville State is 2-2 in their games against 1-AA teams this year.

9/22: 56-20 L @ UCF (3-1) - Down 42-0 at halftime, 49-0 at one point. Outgained 601-303, did NOT turn the ball over, UCF had three turnovers, this could have been even worse. Got destroyed on the ground, allowing 313 yards on 59 attempts, 5.3 ypc), while allowing 17/21 passing for 288 yards. Hankins was 10/23 passing for only 81 yards, two other QBs combined to go 6/10 for 92 and 2 TDs. UCF only scored 37 on UL Lafayette and 25 @ NC State. Got 32 in their 3 point loss to Texas.

9/27: 35-13 L @ Arkansas State (2-2) - Up 31-6 at halftime, ASU scored 29 unanswered in the second half to win, taking the lead for good with 7:52 left in the game. No turnovers by Memphis, two by ASU. Hankins was 10/21 for 119 yards (Arkansas State ranks 99th nationally in pass efficiency defense).

Overall, the offense is decent, though Hankins seems to have been struggling recently on the season he is 77/126 for 832 yards (61%, 6.6 ypa) with 5 TD and 5 INT, for a rating of 121.7. The offense ranks 59th in rushing, 34th in passing, 54th in pass efficiency, and 64th in scoring at 26.75 ppg. The running game involves four different backs who are averaging between 23 and 53 yards per game, and collectively is averaging 4.1 ypc. The defense has been the weak point, ranking 78th against the run, 79th againt the pass, 77th in pass efficiency allowed, 82nd in yards allowed, and 92nd in scoring, at 32 ppg.

Wild card special teams stats: Memphis is 119th nationally (dead last) in net punting at 22.61, obviously not helped by the 89 yard return they gave up to Arkansas State. Marshall is 58th at 9.67 yards per punt return. Meanwhile, sophomore kicker Matt Reagan is 1/4 on field goals, after hitting 12 of 17 last year. He is 0/1 from 20-29, 1/2 from 30-39, and 0/1 from 40-49, and has also missed one of his 13 XP attempts.

I'll be back later with a breakdown of Marshall, and a pick (if I think there's an edge anywhere).

[BobJoeJim]

Marshall (0-4):
9/1: 31-3 L @ Miami FL (4-1) - First and foremost, killed by 4 interceptions.Only outgained by a margin of 341-234 yards. QB Bernard Morris was 16/26 passing for 162 yards, but no TDs and 3 picks (the fourth was thrown by the backup). Only ran for 51 yards on 32 carries though. Marshall did shut down Miami's passing game, holding Kirby Freeman tio 9/21 for 81 yards (3.9 ypa), 1 TD, 1 INT. Freeman is of course no longer Miami's quarterback. The Miami ground game picked up 6.5 yards per carry, though, and combined with the four Marshall INTs, that was GG folks.

9/8: 48-23 L vs. West Virginia (4-1) - Up 13-6 at halftime, but got blown out after the break. Morris was 19/29 for 256 (8.8 ypa) and 2 TDs, no INTs this time, and the running game wasn't quite as anemic, picking up 121 yards on 32 carries. West Virginia ran for 7.0 yards per carry though, as they iced the game, and Pat White added an efficient 13/18 for 149 and 2 TDs through the air.

9/15: 48-35 L vs. New Hampshire - After two forgivable losses against quality opponents, this game is the clunker that makes you wonder how bad Marshall might actually be. UNH was up 24-0 at halftime then held on and answered Marshall's attempts at a comeback. The Marshall passing attack was lights out, Morris was 31/42 for 417 yards and 3 TD, but the Herd only got 87 yards on the ground, on 23 carries. The defense, though, gave up 289 passing yards and 3 TDs on 23 completions and 33 attempts, while getting pounded for 213 yards on the ground on 49 carries (4.3 ypc). It also didn't help that UNH converted 11 of 16 3rd downs.

9/22: 40-14 L @ Cincinnati - The passing offense was once again solid, Morris was 20/30 for 252, 2 TD, 1 INT. Marshall continued to show they are only a threat through the air, though, running for just 80 yards on 35 carries. The defense was once again NOT solid, allowing 20/27 through the air for 219 and 3 TDs, and giving up 5.6 yards per carry on the ground.

Overall, the Marshall offense ranks 18th in passing yards and Bernard Morris is 19th nationally in passing efficiency. On the ground it's a different story as the team's 84.75 yards per game is 111th in the country, leaving the offense as a whole 67th in yards per game and 106th in scoring with only 18.75 points per game. Defensively things are just not good, period. 118 against the run, 112th in pass efficiency D, 98th in total defense, 115th in scoring D (41.75 points per game). The only bright side is that they are 30th in passing yards allowed, but this is just a reflection of their opponents running the ball down their throat. The caveat on all these stats, though, is that they've played against three quality opponents, and the stats are unlikely to reflect what Marshall would do against a team on their own level, such as Memphis.

Wild card stat - Turnovers: Marshall is 108th in turnover margin, at -1.5 per game, while Memphis is 35th at +.75 per game.

[MicroBob]

FWIW - I'm not sure I would call their win over Jacksonville St 'steamrolling'.
The total yards was actually closer than it should have been against a I-AA team. MEM was only up 21-7 at halftime at home against a team they should have been destroying.


Marshall's offense combined with MEM's crazy emotional state has me thinking the value here is on the Herd's side.

A little surprised they didn't postpone this game.
But they've already had one postponement this year and it's an ESPN game too so tougher for them to just throw away that kind of national exposure.
I would guess they took a vote among the players as to whether to play the game or not.

[MicroBob]

Okay, I've read a little more about it.
They cancelled classes on the whole campus because of the possibility of a shooter being around and were holding a campus-vigil at 7pm tonight.

The murder took place just before 10pm so one figures the info didn't leak out to other players until a few hours after that.

Head coach was fighting back tears at the press-conference about it. Practice was obviously cancelled Monday.
But they voted to play the game Tuesday night anyway.

They will do a walk-through early Tues and then have the game that night. My hunch is that the walk-through is going to be pretty emotional for them trying to get ready for the game. They'll probably get mostly ready for the game this way but a walk-through of plays while looking over at the spot where your murdered teammate would normally be standing is going to be an emotional process for them to be sure.

Remember St. Louis' performance after Josh Hancock died? They were a mess. One of the players who thought he could play that night told Larussa right before the game that he was just too messed up to do it.

Football is a bit different and maybe they can turn that emotion into positive energy on the field. But man it's going to be tough on these poor kids.

If they are able to do it then my hat is off to them. But there is now a significant chance that they just show up and aren't able to offer much more than just going through the motions.

Obviously we have no idea how they will react and they probably don't know either. But Marshall +3 has a little bit of value to my mind.

Throw in Marshall's decent offense along with MEM's seeming inability to put much of a stop to so-so teams such as UCF and ASU where I might have been playing MAR anyway and I think the play is clear.

Will be interested to see BobJoeJim's final analysis on this one.

[BobJoeJim]

First of all, ignoring emotional factors for the time being, the murder has no impact on Memphis as a football team, because the young man (may he rest in peace) hadn't actually played yet this year. However the fact that they're playing their third game in 11 days and missed practice is relevant.

When Marshall has the ball: Marshall's pass offense looks good enough, especially considering who their opposition has been (New Hampshire notwithstanding), that it's hard to understand how they've been held under 19 points per game. The answer of course is turnovers and the lack of a running game, at only 2.8 ypc on the year. Still, Memphis not only has a weak defense, but their weakness is balanced, being as bad against the run as against the pass, and has allowed 32 points per game themselves. Also, Marshall's bad turnover margin is largely a product of their defense not forcing TOs, and Morris has only thrown one interception since the Miami game. Also, much of their poor rushing stats is due to sacks (they've given up 4 per game). Memphis only gets 1.25 sacks per game, it's not a strength, so I see Marshall being able to manage just enough rushing yardage to keep the defense somewhat honest. I think Marshall is likely to get their share, particularly against a tired defense. I think Marshall will be much closer to the 32 points Memphis normally gives up than the 19 they normally score. I'd say 28-31 is their most likely score.

When Memphis has the ball: Marshall's defense is a sieve, and Memphis has shown some decent ability to move the ball. Marshall's biggest weakness is against the run, though, and Memphis gets more of their yards through the air than on the ground. Hankins started out the year 41/60 and 16/22, but has been under 50% in his last two games, so I'm a little worried about his consistency. Marshall's one defensive upside is that they haven't allowed that many passing yards, though mostly this is because their opponents haven't bothered to throw that much. Purely from looking at box scores and stats, I suspect they get killed by play action when their opponents do throw. Memphis really hasn't run the ball that well this year, so I'm not sure how well they'll be able to take advantage of this weakness. Still, they should score a bit, Marshall's defense is really bad.

Special teams: This is my key to the game. Marshall has a kicker who is 4/4 from inside 40 yards, while Memphis as a team is 1/5 on field goals (1/3 from inside 40), and has a missed XP. Memphis is also last in the nation in net punting.

Overall: I see Marshall winning a very close game, I'm predicting 31-30 or so, probably with Memphis missing a field goal somewhere along the way. Marshall is definitely my side, and I definitely have no recommendation on the total, which I think is pretty dead-on and has no EV to it.

I'm going to wait until tommorrow to officially post it as a pick, though, because right now the line is Marshall +2.5 (+104) on Pinnacle and Matchbook, and +3 (-115) at Bookmaker and Bodog. I'm hoping for movement onto the three at a better price before I post this as an official pick. I won't be surprised if there is some action on Memphis, because while I chose to ignore the emotional factors surrounding Taylor Bradford's death, I think the BSP viewpoint is that in a circumstance such as this is likely to lead to Memphis "coming out fired up" to "win one for their fallen teammate". This is a viewpoint that can only have been bolstered by a movie that recently came out on DVD, and while I feel like a terrible person for making light of this tragedy... does anyone else feel like it's ironic that Memphis is playing host to Marshall after this happened?

Anyway, if you plan to follow me play the lines however you like, Marshall is the pick. If the line moves against me I'll lock it in tommorrow as low as +1.5, but I think I have a good shot at +3 so I'm waiting to make the pick official. Good luck everyone!

[MicroBob]

very nice write-up BobJoe. Thanks.

FWIW - I was comfortable taking MAR +3, -115.
May add a little more if the line improves which may happen based on your likely correct idea about BSP emotion-factor.


In other news, I've been reading more articles about this young man's murder just because such stuff that is occuring more and more frequently in a city I once called home bothers me so. That place is turning into such a disaster imo.

FWIW - Bradford was evidently something of a gambler which should appeal to the 2+2-folk I guess. He was at Tunica-Horseshoe that weekend and over $7k in cash was found in his car. They don't know if the shooting had anything to do with his gambling winnings from earlier in the weekend or not.

FWIW - if he was in Tunica this past weekend then he likely was there with some of his teammates. Sounds like they might have been doing some partying over the weekend during their brief stretch off between games from Thurs to Tues although that can't be that unusual and I doubt very much should be read into that.

[MyTurn2Raise]

+3 -115 is available at bookmaker and bodog

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
+3 -115 is available at bookmaker and bodog

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, but that's -115. I'm looking for a better price on +3, and I suspect it is likely enough to be available tomorrow to be worth waiting for. If I were betting it now I would take the -115 and get onto the 3 before I bet +2.5 +104.

[Jerry D]

[ QUOTE ]
I hadn't heard about this. Geez Memphis is freaking dangerous these days. So glad I'm not there anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Recent FBI statistics released just last week named the Memphis metropolitan area as the number 1 most violent for crime in America. Last year Memphis was number 2. Anyone driving through there on the way to Tunica should be very careful and hope your car doesn't break down.

[MicroBob]

Yeah, well we're getting off-topic with that but it's definitely not the safest place in the world.

GF's brother is going to school at UT-Memphis which is right downtown near the Med hospital and he has to walk a few blocks from where he parks to his classes and library. And the idiot likes to stay at the library or lab after his classes and keep studying so he's walking all these empty blocks back to his car after dark. Yiikes.
This downtown area almost certainly has to be a more dangerous part of town than the U of M main-campus area where the player was shot.

For going to Tunica you can just take the interstate the whole way there now because of the new I-69 connector from I-55 straight to the casinos. And it's not like the old way taking Hwy 61 is the most dangerous section to go through but the way things are in Memphis these days even the moderately not-THAT-bad places probably shouldn't be trusted.