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For people who think running it twice changes EV
Here are some EV equations for running it twice, anyone who thinks otherwise is mistaken and you can link to this thread for future reference.
Hypothesis – EV of running it twice after the flop is the same as running it once after the flop. For this situation we are going to have a 70% favorite vs. a 30% dog for a $100 pot EV(Running Once for Favorite) = (.7 * $100) – (.3 * $100) = $70 EV(Running Once for Dog) = (.3 * $100) – (.7 * $100) = $30 Now to win the entire pot they have to win both runs Since this is like flipping a coin twice we can use this as an example Pr(flipping heads or tails twice) = (.5) * (.5) = (.25) or 25% Pr(winning twice for favorite) = (.7) * (.7) = (.49) or 49% Pr(winning twice for dog) = (.3) * (.3) = (.09) or 9% Pr(splitting) = 1 – ((.49) + (.09)) = (.42) or 42% EV(Running Twice for Favorite) = (.49 * $100) + (.42 * $50) = $70 EV(Running Twice for Dog) = (.09 * $100) + (.42 * $50) = $30 Conclusion – Running it twice is the same EV as running it once, if it has any effect whatsoever it is only psychological |
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