SH Razz, when should I bet the river?

[2461Badugi]

OK, I have more time now, so it's time for a basic third-level tactics in Razz lesson. This is thinking too far ahead for most .5/1 games, but once you get to 2/4 or so you'll need to have it down.

On the river, you should check when you have exactly what your board and your betting represent, or something slightly worse. You have one example of each here: in Hand 2, you're representing an 86, and you have an 86. In Hand 1, you're representing a seven, and you have an 87. In both cases, the only reason for someone to call with a substantially worse hand (a nine) is if they think you have a pair, and they'll never fold a better hand.

When you have a better hand than your board represents (three babies down) or a much worse hand (a hidden pair), you should bet. In the first case you're looking for value from hands which can beat your board but not your hand, and in the second case you're looking to bluff out hands that beat your hand but not your board.

Later on this strategy becomes too readable and you need to mix it up more, but this should work well for beating most low-limit games.

[minnesotasam]

Bet both.

Hand 1 is closer, and sorta depends on your opponent's 3rd street tendencies and his aggression (or lack thereof) when he has a big draw on 5th, but at .50/1 its a bet.

Hand 2 is an insta bet and you just smile when he calls with 98/87/865. Hand 2 could even make for a super sexy river check/raise against some opponents.

[Jigsaws]

*grunch*

Bet both.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river, you should check when you have exactly what your board and your betting represent, or something slightly worse. You have one example of each here: in Hand 2, you're representing an 86, and you have an 86. In Hand 1, you're representing a seven, and you have an 87. In both cases, the only reason for someone to call with a substantially worse hand (a nine) is if they think you have a pair, and they'll never fold a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

So since I have what I'm representing (or worse) in these two hands, it dictates that I should check. However you said earlier that they are easy value bets.

Focusing on Hand 2, here's how I see it in a nutshell. I feel my hand is largely face-up. I generally feel like I won't get called by a worse hand but will get raised by a better hand, since he must be drawing at *something* that beats me.

Let me try this 2-7 TD analogy. Say I'm pat after the 2nd draw with 86542. I'm OOP HU with someone who drew 1 on the last two rounds. I check the river because I'm not likely to get called by a worse hand but will get raised by a better one. I see this as a similar spot. (Of course I'm probably missing river v-bets in that game too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

Does the fact that I have him crushed on 5th and 6th, no matter what he's holding, and that he called both, imply that I should be betting the river?

In hand 2, he started with 62 down. Was it reasonable for him to call on each street?

[minnesotasam]

Checking Hand 2 is fine if you dislike profit [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

EDIT for clarity: You really think that your opponent is folding on the river if he makes an 86 or an 85? And that's assuming he wasn't drawing dead anyway, which he was.

If you do in fact think that way you need a little more insight into your opponents' minds. No one EVER in Razz calls a bet on 6th, makes their draw and folds. Ever.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking Hand 2 is fine if you dislike profit [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

EDIT for clarity: You really think that your opponent is folding on the river if he makes an 86 or an 85? And that's assuming he wasn't drawing dead anyway, which he was.

If you do in fact think that way you need a little more insight into your opponents' minds. No one EVER in Razz calls a bet on 6th, makes their draw and folds. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's calling my completion with a K, I think it's reasonable to think he has two wheel cards in the hole. In that case he could very well be drawing live (albeit relatively thin). I have no doubt he'd call if he were to make an 8-5, I suspect he could very well raise with it as well. Maybe I just don't see him paying off with a 9-8 which is why I'm not seeing that much value in a river bet. But given the fact that I could be FOS is reason enough for him to pay off with that.

I think I'm just now seeing just what bad a shape he's in on this hand. So let's change his 4th street card from a 5 to an A, 2 or 3. That ought to make the decision to bet the river much closer right?

[minnesotasam]

Its definitely not unreasonable to weight his range towards two wheel cards, though you're 3-handed in an obvious steal spot so he may defend a little lighter than you'd think.

Changing the card from a 5 to something else makes a small, but noticeable difference in that he can potentially win with a six as well.

Also, raising you even if he rivers an 8-5 is pretty much just begging to get 3-bet by hands that have him boardlocked. Very very few players are confident enough hand readers to make such a raise correctly. So ultimately, he's going to bet the very few hands that beat you if you check and flat call with them if you bet (so your action doesn't matter if you're behind, you're losing on big bet here either way), and he's never bluffing since 98 will never fold out anything better.

So the only value on the river here is to try and get him to call off an extra big bet while beat; only way to do that is to bet.

[minnesotasam]

That might have been convoluted (its late), so let me clarify:

Options:
He rivers us -
We check/call (-1 BB) or we bet he calls (-1 BB)
He improves but we still win -
We check/call (he sometimes checks behind so lets say +.75 BB) or we bet and he calls (+1 BB)
He bricks -
We check, he checks behind (0 BB) or we bet he sometimes calls (+.75 BB)

So in sum, with these extremely rough estimates, if we lose it makes no difference, and if we win betting >>> check.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I have more time now, so it's time for a basic third-level tactics in Razz lesson. This is thinking too far ahead for most .5/1 games, but once you get to 2/4 or so you'll need to have it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well apparently one has to go to fourth-level tactics to get the answer right in this case. One of the universal tenets of razz vs. almost all players at all limits is that no one ever believes what you are representing. Some players will grudgingly fold when your board is too strong, but that doesn't mean they actually BELIEVE you.

Hand 1 you have been betting the whole way since 3rd st with the better board and could have been betting a pair, two pair, a J in the hole (since you got raised on 3rd and only flat called), etc. 90% of villains are calling with a smooth 9 (his hand on 6th obv) on the river to look you up. If he has you beat, he will bet if checked to so you don't get a free showdown anyway. If he has an 8 he'll probably smooth call, or bet behind your check, and a smooth 7 or better will raise you. If you're savvy enough and have a good enough read on him you can even fold to this raise and only lose one bet. But even if you call the raise 100% of the time, you come out +EV in the long run to bet into him because he will always pay you off and never bluff.

I leave it to the rest of the forum to discuss how this affects your play in hand 2.

[ABM]

Just some thoughts from a razz noob:

In the first hand if he is drawing to a hand that beats us he would have an average of say 13 outs giving him about 1/3 chance of getting there. It also means he has a made 9.

If he calls 3/4 of the time with his 9 (when he misses) it would seem +EV. Getting decent odds (8+/1) would that not happen? This is also more in our favour if he is a donkey drawing to a 9 and calls when he gets there.

This assumes though that you fold to a raise if you bet and given you are repping a 7 that doesn't seem unreasonable.