25NL KJs -- Something I've been doing more and more . . .

[Leobzook]

Checking is much better in the second hand because only Ax hands are calling when you bet.

[Waingro]

I´m not 100% sold on the deceptiveness of a flop bet, but I think there is a lot of value in a bet on the flop. Worse kings might call, some pocket pairs with a paranoid streak and there is of course some gutters and the lower fd.

You might get the option to check behind on the turn and the pot is bigger when you hit. And villain might misclick and fold an ace.

[doppelganger]

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The idea was that the only hands he'll play a big pot with are the ones I don't want to play a big pot with (at least not yet).


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This comment belies a misunderstanding of the importance of implied odds in NL hold'em. You have a very strong draw, one that will come in by the river more than 30% of the time. Obviously that doesn't give you immediate equity to justify a flop bet, but there are two benefits:

1. As someone already said, it disguises your draw and makes it more likely that you will continue to get paid when you improve.

2. Implied odds easily cover your current pot odds on the flop. Let's look at the likely bet sizes if you hit the turn when you have C-bet the flop vs. when you haven't. I'll just assume 3/4 bets on the turn and 1/2 on river for simplicity.

With $2 C-bet: Pot size after flop: $6.25. After turn ($4.50 bet): $15.25. After river (SHIP IT): $30.25. Total profit on hand: ~$15.

Without C-bet: Pot size after flop: $2.25. After turn ($1.75 bet): $5.75. After river: $11.25. Total profit on hand: ~$5.50.

So, obviously I'm not including any math to analyze how often you hit, etc. so the profit numbers are inflated...but the point here is to show that even if the pot odds don't justify a bet on the flop you will still show more profit in the long run if you bet your strong draws and they hit. Significantly more, which when combined with the FE and deception value of a C-bet makes it the right play pretty often.

[xeanatic]

definitely make a c-bet, and most definitely with a flop like this. As played it must be pretty ovbious for your opponent that you have just made the flush and he prob will nog put any more money in the pot. I'd just call and hope to get him to bet on the river.

[IshiP2U]

Whether it's right or wrong I don't know but it looks very very suspicious against anybody paying attention that is certain: Against a table sheriff who you might get to call down on the turn lighter than he/she would call the flop with I can see it. I can see it to induce an overbet shove if the dynamics are particularily crazy, but on a flop like this where you're getting all the money almost either way if villain has a hand they like, I think it's better to start ASAP if a flush turn is in fact going to kill your action.

Adam

[Kasane]

I understand the reasoning behind a flop check -- but it's just not good with this board. You've got too good a hand, even if it isn't a top pair hand. There are too many good reasons to bet this hand, and not enough good ones to check behind.

Run it hot and cold all in on that flop and you've still got amazing equity against your villains potential monsters, disregarding their merely good ones. Against the range that they might c/r and call a push from you and you're still fine. One for betting out flop.

Let's say you bet into a better hand that doesn't c/r but c/c's -- fine, you check behind on turn and see a free card. Two. If your hand is better but marginal as this case, well pot control is fine for a little lost EV.

You bet and he calls hand that's not a club flush. Flush comes in kills your action. Your only profit came from the flop bet (whether ahead or behind) -- three.

You bet and villain then tends to discount your flush draws (Ac is out there) when it comes in, you're golden with a built pot ready for significant value betting. Four.

Okay, I'm getting tired of listing reasons...

It's better to bet here. Now, change your hand to that missed everything on an A high board but the club draw, two callers in the blinds... well, it still depends on texture and opponents.

As played, I think your turn raise is too big -- but that can be a reverse psychology type of thing too. But your villain as described isn't the type for it.

[ama0330]

Seems to me like this line is the best way to minimise value out of your holding...you are basically banking on villain having a lower flush or looking you up light cause he thinks you're bluffing, both of which are really unlikely and even if he does look you up youre not getting paid if you decide to overbet or something so you get basically nothing.

I would say its a pretty good line to take with 72o but then that would require that we sometimes do it with the made flush, which I would never do. So this line doesn't work for me in any situation.

[jmgambler]

The problem with this play is that your raise on the turn, is gonna kill any action save for hands with redraws. Once you check the flop it is so suspicious on the turn. bluffing with a crap hand is fine with this play, but a made hand?

You have position too,so I really hate this line, sorry ....If you had called the turn maybe?...nah even that sucks

[Nick C]

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It's better to bet here. Now, change your hand to that missed everything on an A high board but the club draw, two callers in the blinds... well, it still depends on texture and opponents.

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I basically would never have just a flush draw here (with a flush draw, I would have a gutshot to the royal as well), but in any case up against this same Villain I would have bet this flop with a draw and also most made hands other than Kx and maybe QQ.

I guess really the only hands I wouldn't c-bet are in fact Kx and QQ, which is exploitable if Villain knew how I played (edit: since a check from me indicates he can steal the pot from me on the turn if he bets enough, or he can value bet smallish and get paid if he has Ax or better), so I'd have to mix it up a little more against him if he was more familiar with me.

I do now think I should have bet the KJs. With the KJo, the check still seems all right to me and maybe it's best, although I'm not sure.

[0evg0]

Nick C,

your hand has 100x more value on the flop as a 15 out draw than as a bluff-catcher.