Talk to me about pot odds calls when deep, for significant % of stack.

[PantsOnFire]

I'll just talk about the first on 64off. This is simply too weak a hand. It has no high card value, has no suited value and is one-gapped. The chance of you being ahead is nil. The only coin flip is vs. 33 or 22.

There are too many worst case scenarios to risk 1/3 of your stack. I would call here if I only had 7K left and pray he doesn't have 66+. But your stack of 10BB still has some meat to it. Leave it be for now.

[seke2]

Calling in the dark is retarded here because your odds aren't that good. This isn't a microstack pushing, this is a guy pushing a 7xBB stack. If it was a 3xBB or 4xBB stack, then call in the dark, fine.

Anyways, I probably fold here. Yeah, you're probably folding a hand you mathematically should call with here, but you're probably going to be like a 60/40 or worse here. Alternately, you could save your chips and steal blinds a few times. 2 or 3 blind-steals and you'd end up with the same stack size if you call and get lucky here--and that's assuming you never steal the blinds, get called, and win a pot anyway.

I think your overall equity from preserving the chips for stealing opportunities is going to totally overcome the small equity edge you might be folding. Of course that assumes you will go after those steals relentlessly. If the stacks on your table are not favorable for stealing (small stacks to your left, big/agro stacks to your right), it might make sense to call because you can't afford to pass up the equity edge if you can't use the chips as leverage for future steals.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran into 2 nearly identical spots that I didn't have the answer for, and I am hoping the MTT regulars can help me understand what to do, given the situation.

Here is one of the hands:

Binion's $150(?) tournament with 489 players. 80 people left, and money starts at 50:

Full table, blinds 1000/2000 with a 200 ante.

So, 5000 in pot to start.

UTG shoves 9000. Pot is now 14,000.

Folded to me in BB, where I find 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

7k to call, 14k in the pot, and I have a dismal 21k in my stack.

Do I call here getting the right(?) price, even if it means calling off a third of my stack? Winning would be great, but losing puts me in a bad spot with my stack.

I felt like I was definitely as good as or better than everyone at the table, so I opted to fold and make up for it by shoving into the nit in the BB.

A nearly identical situation came up again deep in a tournament at the Orleans, except in that hand, it was 25% of my stack with 74o. UTG shoves... I tank and fold.

Is passing up on spots like these a mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

You need 33% equity. With 2 live cards, you are getting a decent price. But, the likelihood is that you are fairly often dominated here to an overpair. So, depending on pusher's range (how tight is he?), it is probably marginally negative chip EV. If you hands were suited, it would probably be marginally positive chip EV against the range the pusher should be using.

But chip EV does not equal real money EV on or near the bubble. You need more than a marginal edge to call here. See Sklansky's article about this topic in this month's 2+2 magazine.

[Sherman]

All sorts of problems with calling here even if you are getting the right price or close to it.

#1 Is that you probably aren't getting the right price against his hand range. We really don't have any evidence that he is shoving ATC here.

#2 Is the functional utility of your chips. If you go from 21K to 14K you are hampered. At this point in the tournament having that extra 7K is worth a lot to you. I've played in tournaments where I have folded my BB getting better than 2:1 with some crappy cards. Why? Because calling and losing basically meant I was leaving. But I knew I could fold here and make it back with some good pushbotting.

In retrospect, what I was really doing was passing up on a very very marginal EV spot to take a bigger (and predictable) EV spot in the next hand or two when I could open shove with FE.

The key here is that this big EV spot is predictable. Time and time again I will mention that you should not not not pass up on +EV spots early on. But the reason for this is because you can't predict getting more +EV spots in the future (although some think they can). But in the OP's spot, you can predict a future better spot. When everyone folds to you and you can raise/shove, that is a much better spot. You have now given yourself an opportunity to win $ w/out even showing your cards. It doesn't get any more +EV than that. Even AA double-sooted vs. 22 doesn't have that much EV.

[seke2]

Sherm, good post. I'd love to hear some deeper thoughts on the value of predictability. I've been musing on another theory post on predictability as an element of reads, but I'd love to hear more from you on it as well.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
#2 Is the functional utility of your chips. If you go from 21K to 14K you are hampered. At this point in the tournament having that extra 7K is worth a lot to you. I've played in tournaments where I have folded my BB getting better than 2:1 with some crappy cards.

[/ QUOTE ]
I should have mentioned this better in my post. 64off is really ATC territory. And for ATC you really should have a much larger stack and/or odds more like 3:1 or better.

[durron597]

grunch

your cards matter less than what you think your fold equity at this table is. how often does it get folded to late position? how many players at the table will fold when u shove 13k more over a 6k raise? (the answer to how many players will fold for 8k more over a 6k raise is zero).

also, how much of villian's range is a pair? obviously you should fold if he turns 77 face up, so... yeah.

[HorridSludgyBits]

I don't even agree that this is a +cEV situation. A player nitty enough to get down to an M = 1 has probably passed on a number of similar situations in the past with random hands, so we're probably looking at 2 high cards (70:30)or a pair (worse).

3:1 is a more interesting situation, but as already pointed out, the chips you lose are much more important than those you win here. Much better to be the one pushing with ATC.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
All sorts of problems with calling here even if you are getting the right price or close to it.

#1 Is that you probably aren't getting the right price against his hand range. We really don't have any evidence that he is shoving ATC here.

#2 Is the functional utility of your chips. If you go from 21K to 14K you are hampered. At this point in the tournament having that extra 7K is worth a lot to you. I've played in tournaments where I have folded my BB getting better than 2:1 with some crappy cards. Why? Because calling and losing basically meant I was leaving. But I knew I could fold here and make it back with some good pushbotting.

In retrospect, what I was really doing was passing up on a very very marginal EV spot to take a bigger (and predictable) EV spot in the next hand or two when I could open shove with FE.

The key here is that this big EV spot is predictable. Time and time again I will mention that you should not not not pass up on +EV spots early on. But the reason for this is because you can't predict getting more +EV spots in the future (although some think they can). But in the OP's spot, you can predict a future better spot. When everyone folds to you and you can raise/shove, that is a much better spot. You have now given yourself an opportunity to win $ w/out even showing your cards. It doesn't get any more +EV than that. Even AA double-sooted vs. 22 doesn't have that much EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't have anything to add to this, except, that this is really hot.

Barry

[degeneratedonk]

great thread guys.