Another River Situation - Missed Draw - Page 2

jakeduke · #11 03-15-2006, 10:36 PM

this post?

I think the C/R flop, bet turn line is good here. You will get even a passive villian to fold sometimes, and you hit a ton.

jakeduke · #12 03-15-2006, 10:38 PM

So how aggro/passive/unwilling to fold does an opponent have to be to give up all your FE for a chance to get an extra BB when you hit?

Machinehead · #13 03-15-2006, 10:57 PM

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So how aggro/passive/unwilling to fold does an opponent have to be to give up all your FE for a chance to get an extra BB when you hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really keep set standards, I just look at the guys stats or how I've seen him play and make a judgement call.

With this guy, 42% doesn't even seem that bad by itself. But when you factor in his 60vpip and his 1.5af, you have a guy that sees way too many showdowns. 1.5af is pretty high for 60vpip. So you have to assume a lot of times he isn't going to SD because he's getting people to fold.

jakeduke · #14 03-15-2006, 10:58 PM

Would you play it the same way if hero either the OESD or the FD, not both?

Machinehead · #15 03-15-2006, 11:09 PM

Yes, I'm certainly not laying down either of those draws.

Nick C · #16 03-15-2006, 11:14 PM

I sure am tempted to fire again. I mean, there's a good chance this guy is chasing with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], right? Or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I suppose he's not folding ace-high, though. And if you fire one last time, I guess what happens next is he calls with pocket deuces, and you lose.

Nick C · #17 03-15-2006, 11:18 PM

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Against a TAG it's a good play, but this guy just isn't going anywhere. Personally I like to c/c, c/c against aggressive villians who don't fold. It also allows you to C/R the turn for more $. It's more about playing your opponent. 42% wtsd is pretty damn high for an aggressive player with a 60% vpip.

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I think our draw is too good to play passively. And on the flop, the bets that go in should be for value.

Is this guy really never folding a hand that currently has us beat on the flop or turn? I'm not that good at interpreting WTSD stats for very loose players.

jakeduke · #18 03-15-2006, 11:37 PM

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Yes, I'm certainly not laying down either of those draws.

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Er, I meant more in terms of the c/c until I hit line as opposed to the c/r the flop line.

Machinehead · #19 03-16-2006, 12:48 AM

Sure this guy would fold sometimes, but not very often. When it comes right down to it, our FE is somewhere between low and very low. It just does not make up for the money we save when we miss and the money we gain when we pop him with a made hand.

If this guy was a TAG or even an unknown I come out firing. But our read says he's a calling station. What's the point of having a read if we don't use it?

Nick C · #20 03-16-2006, 12:57 AM

What's a 60/25/1.5 guy raising with UTG? I'm thinking we may not only have an edge there, but we might have a fairly significant one. (We are a huge favorite over 66, for instance, which I'm thinking is part of his range.)

So we don't mind bets going in on that street. If our checkraise gets 3-bet, then we can think about checking the turn.

Edit: And our draw is so good that, if our aggressive Villain just calls the flop checkraise, we may not even be much of an underdog on the turn. (I don't think we should assume at all that we have no pair outs, especially if our checkraise just gets called. If I spike a 9 on the river, I'm not check-folding.)