Nut straight against flush out of position

[Paxosmotic]

Check/fold without hesitation. Even if all three flip their hands to show me no diamonds, I still check/fold on this board.

[drzen]

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not betting the turn would suck, as would not folding to a raise.

i check-and-see the river.

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You know, at first I thought "typical demented tyler cracker". Then I tried to work it out.

I don't know how to work these things out mathematically, but isn't it an approximation at least to work out the odds that none of six random cards would be a diamond? As though we were drawing to a flush but had a few extra rivers?

We've seen six cards, of which four are diamonds, so nine diamonds remain.

So aren't the odds that three opponents don't hold a diamond something like 37/46 x 36/45 x 35/44 x 34/43 x 33/42 x 32/41? Which is about 24%?

It's about 60% someone has a king, so 40% they don't.

40% of 75% we're ahead = 30% equity.
60% of 75% we're behind, but we have 6 outs to win (nondiamond As and Ts) and 9 outs to tie (diamonds)=14% at least to chop, about 6% to win.
25%, we're dead.

Wow. 36% equity to win outright and another 8% to chop and I wanted to checkfold this?

[tyler_cracker]

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"typical demented tyler cracker"

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please elaborate.

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So aren't the odds that three opponents don't hold a diamond something like 37/46 x 36/45 x 35/44 x 34/43 x 33/42 x 32/41? Which is about 24%?

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i'm kinda sleepy, but this math looks ok to me.

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It's about 60% someone has a king, so 40% they don't.


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huh? i'm not going to crunch the numbers, but the odds of someone having one of the 3 remaining Ks is necessarily less than the odds of someone having one of the 9 remaining [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s.

that kinda messes up the rest of your calculations.

equity calculations aside, the reasons i bet this turn are:

- we may induce someone to fold a crappy [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which is obviously good for us.
- when we check and, say, the last guy bets, we have a somewhat stickier decision. keeping the lead makes the hand easier to play.
- we have zero problem folding to a raise.

[drzen]

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"typical demented tyler cracker"

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please elaborate.

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You often offer advice without explanation that is what can only be described as off the wall. Off the planet, sometimes. Not so much wrong as "huh, what?"

No offence meant. I had the impression you cultivated the image.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So aren't the odds that three opponents don't hold a diamond something like 37/46 x 36/45 x 35/44 x 34/43 x 33/42 x 32/41? Which is about 24%?

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i'm kinda sleepy, but this math looks ok to me.

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It's about 60% someone has a king, so 40% they don't.


[/ QUOTE ]

huh? i'm not going to crunch the numbers, but the odds of someone having one of the 3 remaining Ks is necessarily less than the odds of someone having one of the 9 remaining [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s.

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Yes, it is. I went for the odds they had one in the first place because I know what those are! I would have done the odds for having a diamond in the first place, but I don't know those. I guess I should have written "someone had a king dealt to them"...

I guess I could have done it as 11 "antiouts" six times, couldn't I?

That's 17 and a bit % we are already ahead some percentage we are behind a K but draw out. Not as good as my first try but easily enough to bet, I think.

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that kinda messes up the rest of your calculations.

equity calculations aside, the reasons i bet this turn are:

- we may induce someone to fold a crappy [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which is obviously good for us.
- when we check and, say, the last guy bets, we have a somewhat stickier decision. keeping the lead makes the hand easier to play.
- we have zero problem folding to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. I prefer the equity thing because I like money. But if I have the equity to call, betting is better for exactly the reasons you give here.

Edited: because we still win when behind to a K but draw out.

[tyler_cracker]

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You often offer advice without explanation that is what can only be described as off the wall. Off the planet, sometimes. Not so much wrong as "huh, what?"

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fascinating. please call me on this when you see it in the future.

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No offence meant. I had the impression you cultivated the image.


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none taken. i respond in this fashion because i believe that a concise piece of advice is usually more valuable than a long explanation that no one reads.

also, most of the situations i reply about don't merit or require a lot of verbiage. i leave those situations to people who are actually good at poker.

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I prefer the equity thing because I like money.

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equity is important, but it ain't the only thing.

[drzen]

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You often offer advice without explanation that is what can only be described as off the wall. Off the planet, sometimes. Not so much wrong as "huh, what?"

[/ QUOTE ]

fascinating. please call me on this when you see it in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay.

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No offence meant. I had the impression you cultivated the image.


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none taken. i respond in this fashion because i believe that a concise piece of advice is usually more valuable than a long explanation that no one reads.

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I read them. I'm sure I'm not alone. An answer with reasoning is worth a hundred with none. I can't really use "advice" to understand how to play. It's the old "teach a man to fish" thing.

A poster like Aaron W., who will explain stuff patiently to newbies like me, is like gold. Posters who get it badly wrong but show how they botched the thinking to get it that wrong are silver.

The notion that if an experienced player says "do this", I will learn by trying to figure out why I don't know why he says "do this" is wrong in my view. I don't learn much by trying to figure out why some guy who may or may not be right thinks something is "standard". If I respect the poster, that's at best bronze.

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also, most of the situations i reply about don't merit or require a lot of verbiage. i leave those situations to people who are actually good at poker.

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I prefer the equity thing because I like money.

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equity is important, but it ain't the only thing.

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A lot of things boil down to it though. If you bet the turn in this hand and a small diamond folds, you've just increased your equity somewhat.

But I know there are lots of things to consider. I just find "what's my share of this pot and can I increase it?" useful to begin with.

[milesdyson]

it's not like people call with RANDOM hands on this flop, so the fact that they all called means they are likely to have hands that SHOULD call. no one would ever fold a single diamond on that board but just about everyone in the world will fold 65o 76o 87o etc. without diamonds. when you remove those hands from the "random" array of hands you've given them AND add the fact that the K makes KQJ on the board (T9 got there, AT got there, KT got there) and this is really an easy turn check fold.

[Falcon1511]

I agree when that fourth diamond comes, its an easy check fold. Magic number for bluffing is 2 or less. Middle pair top kicker on the turn is no good when there is a four flush and 3 opponents. Check the turn, and fold if anyone bets, maybe you can show down your hand.

[detruncate]

Hi Python. Welcome to the forum.

PF is fine and I don't mind the flop bet, but it's time to give it up on the turn. We're holding a pair vs 3 opponents on a 4-flush board and face the prospect of having to navigate our way through 2 betting rounds OOP. Easy muck.

[Xhad]

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Flop: I've top pair with kicker out of position and a weak straight draw. The flush draw is threatening. Planning to fold, if someone reraises my raise.

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You should not fold here for a single flop raise. However, if you are raised and that turn hits, you can c/f.

As others have pointed out you have far too many opponents to bet the turn.