i have a draw, 25/50 nl live--opinions on all streets welcome

[lapoker17]

i need more information before i can comment on the hand.

[KRANTZ]

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raise the flop, you are 400bb deep in position with a good draw

the river seems like a trivially easy fold assuming your read is right (you look like a station and overbets are almost NEVER bluffs)

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J,
if you are raising this flop, I assume it's to something like 3.5k. What are you doing then if he raises to 9k? Shoving, folding, or calling? I'm not saying it's wrong to raise here, I definitely contemplated it, it's just that I wasn't sure what to do if he reraised (I guess it's an ez fold??). Thanks,
dlpnyc21

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folding usually, but you're not going to get reraised very often at all

[raptor517]

eh.. i play it like u and call the river. i dont see why he cant have a smaller flush just as often as a bigger one. chalk it up to cooler if u get shown nuts.

[JEFF or DAD]

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i need more information before i can comment on the hand.

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[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[DeMaci]

How can you fold the river? He could be vaule shoving worse hands against what he sees as a calling station.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I take OP's word for the fact that this guy is a huge winner, but even then (unless he's Jason Strasser) people usually overbet only nuts/air. So if it's not air...

I highly doubt you see J high flush here...

[cameronbarry]

gonna go ahead and say follow your read and pitch the hand.

you say you reason that he isn't ever bluffing, and you also say your read on him physically is that he is not bluffing. additionally he knows that you like to call him light, and in your and my, and in pretty much everyone's experience live massive river overbet shoves are pretty much always the nuts.

couple all that with the fact that your play is consistent with a flush draw,

i think you get shown some combo of the nuts damn near 100% of the time.

[greg nice]

wow folding would be brutal imo after the way you played it

but i def raise flop

[Micturition Man]

You put too many assumptions in the post. If your assumptions are true this is QED a fold.

If you strip away the assumptions and phrase this as more of a generic theoretical problem, this is surely a call.

I guess one thing that hasn't been made entirely explicit is that if you 'know' he has a flush then this is definitely a fold based on pot odds (seems to me J9s is the only reasonable flush you beat, but even if you get more creative it still won't add up to enough combos to justify a call).

To me a read/tell based on fold feels reasonable here but I never play live so...

[ceczar]

i think a key factor here is that in his mind, you probably don't have a flush. he would expect you to fold all flush draws that don't contain a pair and/or straight draw when he bets that big on the turn.

while it may be true that live players rarely overbet allin with less than the nuts, ron is far from a typical live player, besides the fact that people overbet allin with weak made hands multiple times in that game last night. there is no doubt he plays J9h the same way, similarly 5h6h. i wouldn't be shocked to see him valuepush top set there either.

while a flush draw is in your range, it is far from the only hand you could have in that spot, and he would expect you to look him up with far lighter holdings than you actually had.