Weird two pair spot in multiway limped pot

[wins_pot]

very tough spot

at 3:1, i think you have to call

after the river goes check-check, UTG has a profitable pot bet bluffing opp.
the SB might well be making a screaming call, or he might reasonably put you on nothing and UTG on a bluff.
short story: i think there's better than a 25% shot that you're good. not much better though.

BA

[thabadguy]

You gotta bomb it somewhere. Flop maybe a lil too transparent. I love a turn bomb tho. Try to rep something liek QJspades or TJss.
I def bet this river and then make a read.

[8outpoker]

I agree with wins your priced in

[KRANTZ]

i bet this river but i like this fold, and no you do not have to bomb this anywhere obviously

[WuTank]

I would also raise at least the turn and make a defensive bet on the river like 600.

[Kala1928]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG has a profitable pot bet bluffing opp.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand can UTG have on the river that has no showdown value at all?

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG has a profitable pot bet bluffing opp.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand can UTG have on the river that has no showdown value at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

well he ended up showing up with K5o which is the kind of random crap I have to give him for my call to be close to good IMO. sb had A4. Every time I tell myself to stop calling all the time I fold the winner....

[fslexcduck]

argh results posted too soon.

basically, i think it's a call. the way it played out, UTG is very rarely ahead (what can we put him on? a set? how? gotta be worse 2 pair or nothing IMO), and letting him bluff the river is fine, we should really only be very worried about SB. for the reasons that people have said, better 2 pair or set is unlikely (though not impossible).

if SB bombs river, i might find a fold since QT is very very very likely, but now he check calls? lol. that was the most amazing thing he could have done, now he can't have QT unless it's some sick play hoping for the overcall... so now that QT is gone, you're ahead very often. and the odds make it a clear call, as brandon alluded to.

[KRANTZ]

what? no way, in my experience UTG, with this bet size, almost always has QT or a set. if we had the read on UTG AFTER this hand, of course, its a call, but we dont know hes an idiot yet, so theres no reason to assume he doesnt have a bigger hand just to talk ourselves into a call.

we're definitely ahead of SB though. games are obviously still good.

[fslexcduck]

[ QUOTE ]
what? no way, in my experience UTG, with this bet size, almost always has QT or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

what set can we put him on given preflop action (sure i guess limping utg with a big pair is possible, but does not happen very often shorthanded)? and with such a big hand, how often does he overcall such a big bet on the turn rather than jacking it? i just think a hand like KQ or QJ or KTss or something is much more likely...