|
|
#11
11-05-2007, 02:20 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 50NL - hmmm, potentially big, multiway pot, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Uhm, this is super standard. If both CO and MP calls your shove I would say that you have 40% equity at least... [/ QUOTE ] I don't think you get it. Do I want to keep MP in with AA/KK to increase the pot for if/when I hit? or do I want to try and force him out? Any set is pushing anyway. AJss would be really nice to force out (any Axss, actually). If AA/KK stay in or push over my flat call, doesn't affect my equity one bit -- but it might make for a much sweeter pot for that 40%... MP has 150bb and I cover him. I couldn't care less about CO. [/ QUOTE ] Uhm, you dont think I get what? I dont think it matters one bit in this case, if we flat or shove. MP must understand that we are playing for our stack no matter calling or shoving... Oh, and I'm not flatting any big made hand either, so I guess that's one more + for shoving. [/ QUOTE ] If both shove, your equity drops to like 30%. Flatting is horrible here, accomplishes nothing, imo. 
|
|
#12
11-05-2007, 02:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL - hmmm, potentially big, multiway pot, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Uhm, this is super standard. If both CO and MP calls your shove I would say that you have 40% equity at least... [/ QUOTE ] I don't think you get it. Do I want to keep MP in with AA/KK to increase the pot for if/when I hit? or do I want to try and force him out? Any set is pushing anyway. AJss would be really nice to force out (any Axss, actually). If AA/KK stay in or push over my flat call, doesn't affect my equity one bit -- but it might make for a much sweeter pot for that 40%... MP has 150bb and I cover him. I couldn't care less about CO. [/ QUOTE ] Uhm, you dont think I get what? I dont think it matters one bit in this case, if we flat or shove. MP must understand that we are playing for our stack no matter calling or shoving... Oh, and I'm not flatting any big made hand either, so I guess that's one more + for shoving. [/ QUOTE ] If both shove, your equity drops to like 30%. Flatting is horrible here, accomplishes nothing, imo. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think I made it clear what I meant with my flatting vs shoving rambling. What I meant to say is/was: It shouldn't matter FOR MP if he has AA or KK, whether we flat or fold, as we are playing for out stack anyways. I'm to lazy to make any EV calc. that could show if we want MP in or not in this pot.
|
|
#13
11-05-2007, 02:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL - hmmm, potentially big, multiway pot, big draw
My equity doesn't seem to change much no matter what they have:
Board: Qs Jh 5s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 52.190% 52.19% 00.00% 48066 4.50 { QQ-JJ } Hand 1: 08.874% 08.69% 00.18% 8007 166.50 { JJ+, 55, AJs } Hand 2: 38.936% 38.76% 00.18% 35700 162.00 { KsTs } --- 232,974 games 0.005 secs 46,594,800 games/sec Board: Qs Jh 5s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 31.386% 30.37% 01.01% 70759 2362.50 { JJ+, AsJs } Hand 1: 30.244% 29.28% 00.96% 68223 2236.50 { JJ+, 55, AJs } Hand 2: 38.370% 38.05% 00.32% 88646 747.00 { KsTs } If I can convince MP to stay with AA/KK, profit?? Money's going in anyway when he has a set. Board: Qs Jh 5s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 54.435% 54.30% 00.13% 11290 27.00 { JJ+, 55, AJs } Hand 1: 45.565% 45.44% 00.13% 9446 27.00 { KsTs } 45% of 220 or some such, or 38% of 400 -- I know, I know, doesn't quite work that way because UTG might not be going all in if he flats or folds turn/river as well. And maybe I'm not pushing turn or river for the last 100bb (50 of mine and 50 of his) if I miss. Point is, my equity is never as low as 30%.
|
|
#14
11-05-2007, 02:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL - hmmm, potentially big, multiway pot, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone make an argument for or against it? [/ QUOTE ] How about: "You are totally crushed and a good proportion of the time you are drawing extremely thin or totally dead"
|
|
#15
11-05-2007, 02:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL - hmmm, potentially big, multiway pot, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Can someone make an argument for or against it? [/ QUOTE ] How about: "You are totally crushed and a good proportion of the time you are drawing extremely thin or totally dead" [/ QUOTE ] how often? that would be an argument.
|
|
#16
11-05-2007, 06:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL - hmmm, potentially big, multiway pot, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
MP is not laying down AJss. UTG might, that was my reason for the push... UTG might lay down AA/KK here. I would. But that would actually be bad for me, unless MP has AQ -- then it'd be good. [/ QUOTE ] My bad, I got my own villains confused. We're talking about the same guys.
|
|
#17
11-08-2007, 08:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL - hmmm, potentially big, multiway pot, big draw
Let's think this through a bit, shall we?
MP looks too tight to have the nut flush draw. He's only raising 14% of his total hands preflop and his position is pretty bad. Also, the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are out of play. That means the best suited ace of spades he could have is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which is a VERY specific holding, and even then not necessarily worth a raise for this guy from this position. So far, all that MP has done is raise preflop and make a strong c-bet; that could be any pair (including the ugly lil' sets), AQ (TPTK), or AK (semibluff with ten outs). He's obviously not folding JJ/QQ no matter what we do, so that's not very relevant. KK/AA likely fold if we push but could call (or push themselves) if we smooth-call. CO doesn't worry me -- he could have two pair, a set, top pair, or other assorted nonsense. I find a draw unlikely for him -- his aggression is low enough that I don't think he raises that large flop bet with nothing but a draw. No matter what he has and no matter what we do, he's pot-committed: we've got to beat him to win the pot, and right now we're very likely to be behind him. So now we've got two important questions: 1. Do we continue with this hand? 2. Do we want company or would we rather be heads-up? As to #1, I think putting either of these guys on A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is seeing monsters under the bed. Sure, it's a possibility, but neither of them has convinced me of that, and neither of them seems LIKELY to have the nut flush draw. Call it a slim possibility, and count our flush draw as six outs. Add in the six outs for the non-flush straights and we've got twelve outs to a winner. (Note: if we're up against a set we've got 15 outs, discounted by 1/3rd, so that's still 10 effective outs to a winner, and the logic still applies.) Even with some minor discounting because we're scared we still have to consider ourselves pot committed given the dead money in there already, so we're playing this hand. As to question #2, let's be honest: our K outs and our T outs are dog crap. We're not winning if we spike a pair; we've got to hit our straight or flush to win this pot. If we take that as a given then we definitely want as much company as possible in this hand: with all this dead money MP won't fold A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], so we aren't exactly "protecting our hand" or "buying outs" by pushing. With CO pot-committed we've got to hit to win. So, let's do what we can to win as much money as humanly possible if and when we hit our hand. So, I say smooth-call this raise, intending to call any all-in bet on the flop or turn. If, by some miracle, I still have money behind and the turn gets checked to me, I'm checking behind unless I hit, and if I hit I'm pushing. When you can't win by any means except hitting your card but you're still pot-committed, you want as much company in the pot as you can get. Play for the overcall.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
