Hand from Borgata WPT - Page 2

ActionJeff · #11 10-02-2007, 04:04 AM

Justin,

I think this is actually a fairly easy decision. You just can't raise here, even if he thinks you are taking advantage of his mis-bet, with his assumed range and the fact that this is a standard tight guy in a live tournament, he just isn't calling a 3-bet shove with worse. And the way this hand played out, I would be very surprised if he bets the river as a bluff or a valuebet with a worse hand than yours. I would call and check/fold on most rivers to most bets. I might have to call if he bets small on a completely harmless river, but I think that decision is even somewhat trivial and based upon your read of him. Calling and making a small (1/2 pot type) lead on a variety of rivers is also acceptable IMO, and might be preferable, but once again I don't think its a huge difference and it really depends on your read of the guy.

-Jeff

mikeJ · #12 10-02-2007, 04:07 AM

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the BB says several times that he meant to call. He is very adamant about it too. He doesn't seem upset at the ruling or anything, but I guess he just wants to make it clear that he wanted to call.

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I think if the guy had AQ or a draw and his bet was ruled as a raise, he'd be somewhat upset. Nor do I think he ever has a bluff here given above. Very unlikely he was going to pretend to call, while actually intending to raise as a bluff or call turn so he could bluff you on river. His line and the above actions seem extremely strong. Not to mention that people's ranges out of the bb, raising over an UTG limp are usually slim to begin w/. There are 9 possible combos of AK, and 9 possible combos of AA/KK/TT, but he could show up w/ QJ occasionally, but I doubt he ever has one pair or worse. Anyhow, I think you should either just call or fold because you're a dog vs. his range, but depending on how you weight AK/AA/KK/TT/QJ, there may be enough overlay where you can call and c/c river. But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

I vote fold.

ZeeJustin · #13 10-02-2007, 04:10 AM

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Justin,

I think this is actually a fairly easy decision. You just can't raise here, even if he thinks you are taking advantage of his mis-bet, with his assumed range and the fact that this is a standard tight guy in a live tournament, he just isn't calling a 3-bet shove with worse. And the way this hand played out, I would be very surprised if he bets the river as a bluff or a valuebet with a worse hand than yours. I would call and check/fold on most rivers to most bets. I might have to call if he bets small on a completely harmless river, but I think that decision is even somewhat trivial and based upon your read of him. Calling and making a small (1/2 pot type) lead on a variety of rivers is also acceptable IMO, and might be preferable, but once again I don't think its a huge difference and it really depends on your read of the guy.

-Jeff

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The reason I think this hand is interesting is not because the correct answer is hard to come by (although I should point out that you are the first to say call I think).

Let me try to think of a way to phrase this that won't give away the answer.

The key to this hand is somewhat simple, yet I told the hand to about 10 great players, and the only two that came up with the correct EXPLANATION, were Thor and Alan.

Thor is an incredibly smart guy. Arguably the best bridge player of all time.

As for Alan, I have said several times on 2+2 and my website that he is quite possibly the best live tournament player on the planet.

Once you hear the explanation, it will probably sound very simple. I suspect it will be a while before someone correctly posts it here.

ZJ123 · #14 10-02-2007, 04:12 AM

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But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

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but why?

What if he really just wanted to call the turn? then he would check behind on most rivers, but if he bets? Then he is most likely angle shooting and you can fold. If you think hes angle shooting then you fold, if u think he actually wanted to call, then you call and check the river, because hes not betting worst (save for AK, but i think he bets the flop with that). Under these circumstances hes almost never bluffing the river or making a thin value bet.

benlj21 · #15 10-02-2007, 04:13 AM

never mind

adanthar · #16 10-02-2007, 04:13 AM

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And dude, come on you're a mod. No short answers without explanations please!

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yeah okay fine. anyway, if you think "1K + 500 -> 1K+5K" is a plausible error, that changes things a little, but I don't think the Borg's chips are similarly colored? I can't see why you're dismissing this one easily.

having said that, if that's not what you're going for, the other plausible option IMO is that, as straightforward as he is, he's simply worried you have the nuts on the turn, which doesn't help your hand at all, either.

mikeJ · #17 10-02-2007, 04:20 AM

A "tight, solid, straightforward" player raises pf from bb over an UTG limp, checks flop, moves to call, but accidentally raises, and then isn't upset about raising. Which hands from that range will check behind on a blank river?

ZeeJustin · #18 10-02-2007, 04:26 AM

I'm surprised no one is confused by the fact that he wasn't upset. If he did have a monster, wouldn't he pretend to be upset?

Don't focus on this too much though, because it's not the key. Just a little something I found interesting.

I'm curious who the first person to find the key will be. I bet it's going to be a very well respected poster. Maybe LearnedFromTV!

Edit: I'm going to sleep relatively soon. I'll respond more in the morning.

mastr · #19 10-02-2007, 04:36 AM

zj, i kinda expected a lil discussion on my ramble at least.. I don't think its as open and shut as you may think, and I know I can never hope to be thorladen or Mr Sass.

ZeeJustin · #20 10-02-2007, 04:42 AM

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zj, i kinda expected a lil discussion on my ramble at least.. I don't think its as open and shut as you may think, and I know I can never hope to be thorladen or Mr Sass.

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Everything you said was both logical and relevant.

You were definitely the closest to the "correct explanation" so far, but that's probably only because you also wrote the most.

I will not be very surprised if you do a little bit more thinking and are the one to come up with the specific explanation I'm looking for... but you haven't yet.