I fold the nuts preflop

[ACJames]

highly unlikely you have the best hand here...very thin spot...standard fold especially facing stats like this

[FionnMac]

ok well, maybe i'm being results orientated. The cut-off insta-folded after me, and utg said he had junk, implied he had 78s or something, and i have no reason to disbelieve him.

Given our history, what % of the time do you think we should 3-bet here with AKs in this position?

[soah]

I was afk and thinking about this hand and ran some numbers in my head. I have no idea if they are accurate and I don't have PokerStove on this computer... but what I came up with was that if CO folds (and doesn't have any relevent cards) and UTG has AA-JJ/AK 100% of the time, then you'd lose somewhere around $30 on average by stacking off. That is likely off a bit because it was all done in my head, but it seems about right.

This fails to consider that CO will sometimes wake up with AA/KK here and sometimes he will fold one of the aces you need, and sometimes you will run into ugly spots where both of them call you and one has AK and the other has a pair (although sometimes you'll get lucky and run into QQ and JJ, I suppose). I'm pretty sure though that the other possible outcomes other than CO folding and UTG stacking off are also -EV.

The only thing this really fails to take into account is the times when UTG is bluffing and CO doesn't have anything strong enough to stack off with. If anyone wants to do enough math to figure out how often he needs to be getting out of line in order to justify pushing here, then go for it... but from what I'm seeing it is pretty hard for there to be any significant value in this spot from the player descriptions given. Since CO isn't getting much out of line, UTG can't stray too far out of line here either.

[NDHand]

Shoving here seems a good way to skyrocket your variance in a break-even, at best, EV situation. 1-way ticket to fold-town for me.

[FionnMac]

[ QUOTE ]
I was afk and thinking about this hand and ran some numbers in my head. I have no idea if they are accurate and I don't have PokerStove on this computer... but what I came up with was that if CO folds (and doesn't have any relevent cards) and UTG has AA-JJ/AK 100% of the time, then you'd lose somewhere around $30 on average by stacking off. That is likely off a bit because it was all done in my head, but it seems about right.

This fails to consider that CO will sometimes wake up with AA/KK here and sometimes he will fold one of the aces you need, and sometimes you will run into ugly spots where both of them call you and one has AK and the other has a pair (although sometimes you'll get lucky and run into QQ and JJ, I suppose). I'm pretty sure though that the other possible outcomes other than CO folding and UTG stacking off are also -EV.

The only thing this really fails to take into account is the times when UTG is bluffing and CO doesn't have anything strong enough to stack off with. If anyone wants to do enough math to figure out how often he needs to be getting out of line in order to justify pushing here, then go for it... but from what I'm seeing it is pretty hard for there to be any significant value in this spot from the player descriptions given. Since CO isn't getting much out of line, UTG can't stray too far out of line here either.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post, thanks

[ QUOTE ]
Since CO isn't getting much out of line, UTG can't stray too far out of line here either

[/ QUOTE ]

My reasoning exactly. Plus CO is aware the UTG is is well..under the gun, so his range somewhat smaller (not by any means tight though, still extends to any pair, A-10s and good suited connectors probably), so he's not raising with suited trash here. And obv UTG is aware that CO thinks this...and so forth.

I think i just got out played on this occasion.

[soah]

If CO were me, he'd be popping it with suited aces here much more than suited connectors, especially if UTG is the type to just call there rather than coming back over the top (which isn't clear from your post).

[SuperPokerJedi]

All-in babay!

[radiaL]

i'm a fish

Dealt to mlpzaq [ 8d 8h ]

i snap your push fwiw, you've never cold called me with TT+ so this is high ace / mid pair / gay [censored]

obv this changes now [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

CO was horrid and getting out of line against me as well