the 2nd nuts, first for low then for high.

[Buzz]

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It wouldn't make much sense for the CO to raise with just A2, since no other A2 will fold but he will knock out other potential callers.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Brian - I think raising after this flop with A2XY makes sense sometimes. It depends on XY and also on your opponents. Although you may not want to knock out opponents who will chase with losers for low and nothing for high, you do want to increase your chances to scoop.

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Of course, I wouldn't rule it out entirely.

[/ QUOTE ]No, because whatever their reasons, many opponents will, in fact, raise here with A2XY.

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In any case, I don't know about you, but when I have just A2 for low and no high, an ace hits the board on the turn (making a flush possible), and it goes bet/raise in front of me, I probably wouldn't call.

[/ QUOTE ]Me neither. With A2XY and no favorable odds chance for the XY, AX, AY, 2X, and/or 2Y, I'll fold here too.

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I share a few choice words with the screen as I hit the fold button.

[/ QUOTE ]Your nut low is going to get counterfeited on the turn 6/45 or about 13%. It's at least better than getting counterfeited on the river. (which happens 6/44 or about 14%). I fully expect to have my nut low counterfeited on either the turn or river roughly one time out of four. When it happens, it doesn't phase me. It's just part of the game.

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Given that the BB called 2 bets on the flop and then bet the turn, I would say the odds that he has the nut flush are higher than usual,

[/ QUOTE ]Before the turn, when BB calls the double bet on the second betting round, I'd guess the odds BB had an ace-flush draw were higher than usual.

To call the double bet, depending on how the betting usually goes, BB probably has a low along with some chance or chances at high, including a club draw, possibly the king flush club draw. If he does have two clubs, it's only 7/28 that he has clubs with the king.

He might bet the turn (3rd betting round) with 23K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Y without another club. If he has 23XY, he might bet without clubs. I think BB is much more likely to have 23YZ than KcXcYZ.

But all right. You can make a reasonable argument for higher than random. He's about 4% likely to have the king flush if with random cards. Let's double the 4%. That makes him about 8% likely to have the king flush. Want to still add in 4% for CO? O.K. That still makes it about 88 to 12 in favor of Hero winning with the queen flush.

You're making a mistake here if you overestimate the chance BB or CO has the nut flush. It's possible, and you're going to lose when you're up against the king flush. You're going to get re-raised and you have to call and you're going to lose three big bets instead of one.

But if both opponents call your raise, and if both have low, then you'll win one half of a big bet. You have to win half of a big bet four times as often as you lose one big bet. You have to lose 20% to have unfavorable odds to make a value raise.

And I don't think you lose that often.

You're not taking a chance on losing the whole pot by betting here. What's already in the pot is destined to go to whoever has the winner (unless your raise knocks out a better low). You already lost that if one of these opponents has the king flush and one of them has a better low (and continues). You're simply laying four to one odds (two big bets against half of a big bet) that neither of these opponents has the king flush.

I think it's a good bet.

Buzz