OOP vs TAG in capped pot

[Oink]

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Can't see why you're so confused about what he has. It's an ace really really often. AK or AQ

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Ya you are prolly right. Initially I figured that waiting for the turn with an A was a mistake, but I cant really convince myself that it is.

Its just that he should expect Yourface to check a lot of worse hands on the turn. Yourface could easily be c/c'ing high pairs with a d and c/f'ing high pairs without a d.

I am not convinced that waiting for the turn with an A is a good play but since I cant explain why I shouldnt expect him not to do so.


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He could also have flopped the nut flush - was overlooking that possibility.

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Well, that would be a clear misplay IMO and I wouldnt expect him to do that. Besides its only one or maybe two combos.

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Do you think he will fold 77/99 with no diamond on the flop?


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Good point. He will often fold these on the flop making his bluff range smaller.


Hmm, that b/f looks better and better and I am learning something here.

[Tryptamean]

That's a pretty ugly flop for your hand, this is assuming a pretty wide range for a solid player to be 3-betting another solid player's UTG raising range:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

75,240 games 0.031 secs 2,427,096 games/sec

Board: Ad 8d 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.857% 23.94% 01.91% 18015 1440.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 74.143% 72.23% 01.91% 54345 1440.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }


After, he calls the flop, it gets much worse:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,596 games 0.005 secs 519,200 games/sec

Board: Ad 8d 3d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.075% 10.40% 00.67% 270 17.50 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 88.925% 88.25% 00.67% 2291 17.50 { JJ+, TcTd, TdTh, TdTs, 9c9d, 9d9h, 9d9s, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, ATs+, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, AJo+ }

Initially, my instinct said a c/f would seem best, but I probably b/f in practice also. In any case, I think the fact the he is a rational player and considering these stove calcs, makes it a pretty easy c/f.

[Tryptamean]

Also, I think he would be inclined to check behind his KK-88 with a diamond on the turn, strengthening the case for a c/f.

[Wolfram]

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He could also have flopped the nut flush - was overlooking that possibility.

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Well, that would be a clear misplay IMO and I wouldnt expect him to do that.

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So a standard line for villain with a flopped nut flush would be to raise the flop?

[yourface]

it wasn't as bleak when I did my stoving for this hand, as I assumed that he would raise any flush on the flop, but yah it is a crappy spot and I'm not convinced betting the turn is good at all

maybe he will fold a better PP w/o a diamond, and I will get some value from worse PPs with a diamond, but mostly I get owned by a bunch of Ax hands

[Tryptamean]

I would def fastplay a flopped flush in this spot if I were villian.

[secretprankster]

If you have KdQd unless there is some history between you two I would definitely not raise the flop here. He (yourface) can basically never 3-bet you, will often straightaway fold underpairs and you miss out on the possibility of him firing the turn. Calling it a clear misplay is completely wrong IMO.

[Oink]

I disagree strongly that waiting for the turn with a nf will extract more from underpairs.

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He (yourface) can basically never 3-bet you, will often straightaway fold underpairs and you miss out on the possibility of him firing the turn.

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This argument breaks down when Yourface checks the turn with underpairs. Villain should expect that yourface will do exactly that quite often - in particular when a diamond turns.

My play would be to fastplay the nf hoping to get action from AK and AA.

AA is not a lot of combos but when Yourface has exactly that, jamming the flop will be significantly better than waiting for the turn.

Also, any diamond on the turn would freeze my action vs AK and underpairs without a diamond.

Not jamming the flop with the nf is a clear mistake.

[secretprankster]

No you are definitely wrong here. If you're going to fastplay this flop with something, fastplay it with 88 or AA. You have the flop too crushed to raise here.

You're raising the flop "hoping to get action from AA/AK"? AA is barely any combos. AK and AQ can't have flush draws so they really shouldn't be giving much action as they are never going to be way ahead and will frequently be getting freerolled. Raising will also often fold tens through kings, whereas if you call, at least he has to fire another barrel before folding, or he may checkcall down from the turn on (which is still obviously better than him folding outright).

[secretprankster]

Also the fact that you want to betcall down on the turn with black JJ fearing a semibluff is yet another reason for Villain to wait for the turn with the nut flush.