Thursday Night NCAAF

[Ichabod1985]

Oregon -4.5 2nd Half 2 Units

[bills217]

Oh well. I had the Chargers the other night, so I guess I'm even. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[rush66]

Bills,

You were on kentucky last week, that makes you even too if you ask me.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
Bills,

You were on kentucky last week, that makes you even too if you ask me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not seeing the comparison?

Besides that most of my Kentucky was at 3 which was easily better than the closing line. Not to mention Kentucky played like dog [censored] and still never trailed in the second half, all despite the Little injury.

Edit: If you think Kentucky is only 3 better than Vandy (I am generously calling it a neutral field despite a 60/40 Kentucky crowd advantage), I don't know what to tell you, all public-fading aside.

As for tonight's game, don't forget that it should have been 15-0 Oregon through about 8 minutes and Oregon outgained Arizona by 100 in the first half with Dixon playing less than a quarter, Oregon had the ball for 2/3 of the first half, had 15 first downs to 9, etc.

Believe me, I get the public fading angle, but if you can't make some sort of handicapping argument for Zona (not saying you can't, some have), or say Vandy last week, then basically what you're saying by betting is that you either think there is some critical non-publically available info or that the games are rigged (and these two things are not all that different).

Hypothetical - if Oregon was PK at 8:30 ET tonight, which would have been the correct side and who would the public have been on?

Now you say Oregon being PK would be absurd, based on the available information. Well, I think UK -3 was pretty far off given available information, and, to a lesser extent, Oregon -10 tonight. (I got awful numbers on tonight's game anyway so I can't complain that much.)

Do you see why I compared this game to Chargers/Colts?

[rush66]

I was just trying to give you props for the win last weekend...

That being said, Ive stated before when I fade the public, I see which side should be faded, using my handicapping to decide if it makes sense, and then find the best line.

Now, being that you brought up the non-available information and "rigged" aspect. Yes, I do believe that those two are not completely different and I do believe that this non-public information is what causes many of these plays. Therefore, when I see this and can justify it with my handicapping, and get a good line. I feel completely comfortable with my play win or lose.

In the end though, I was just trying to give you props.

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
I was just trying to give you props for the win last weekend...

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean to be negative, you're a good poster - I just wasn't sure what you meant, and the above is something I have been thinking about a lot in light of UK/Vandy, Colts/Chargers, and Oregon/Zona tonight.

It's almost like there's some sort of voodoo factor in handicapping these road fave games that violates all logic and reason - I don't get it. (And as the Vandy game showed, it often has nothing to do with underestimating HFA.)

Interestingly, one plausible explanation raised by Erin Andrews of all people tonight was that throughout the week the Oregon coaching staff had been concerned that Dixon was not being honest about the extent of his injury, but I had not heard any wind of that prior to him (presumably) shredding his knee tonight.

[rush66]

The game that really boggled my mind was last night Miami/Akron. Everyone on miami, same scenario. I could come up with a few vague reasons for betting akron, so I put a little on it without much to justify it. Most boring game ever, but my +8 covered. How the hell that game ended up the way it did...Ill never know.

[bills217]

And you had 4 on UK/Vandy IIRC, which was better than WA, so in that sense I still wouldn't quibble too too much, which I think I mentioned in that thread.

I dunno. I just hate this blind public-fading followed by all sorts of flukish things happening for the home team and then presumably the public faders are somewhere congratulating themselves for having predicted it, and then they do the same thing next time only the fluky things seem to have a tendency to happen again...it's just weird.

I felt like I had sold my soul to the devil by winning 6 units on the Chargers. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[rush66]

Yea, I did and your right about sportsbetting being weird. And thats why I love it!!!

[siccjay]

It's because the games are rigged. Duh