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#11
04-29-2007, 05:39 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
I've never really go into Derby Day planning on making money. Just doing the research for the fun of it and to prepare for the Preakness and Belmont where I feel I can sometimes get an edge. Everyone knows the money is in the claimers anyway.
This year may be different though, if Curlin takes a ton of public money and misses the exacta as I am predicting then my exotics will be +EV. I have a feeling that the public will come to their senses and Curlin will not be the post time favorite. 
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#12
04-29-2007, 11:14 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
I have a feeling that the public will come to their senses and Curlin will not be the post time favorite. [/ QUOTE ] LOLOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLL! First time for everything I guess.
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#13
04-30-2007, 02:06 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have a feeling that the public will come to their senses and Curlin will not be the post time favorite. [/ QUOTE ] LOLOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLL! First time for everything I guess. [/ QUOTE ] Street Sense will be favored at post time.
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#14
05-01-2007, 12:40 AM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
Is the love for Hard Spun simply that he has a good Beyer Rating? I have yet to see him run, but I always feel wary of horses that have not run in a real competitive race. He does have the "Philly Connection." [/ QUOTE ] Well, I've been eyeballing HSpun for a while to figure out where he goes on my card - and given today's workout, he may go at the top. He ran 5 furlongs in 57 2/5ths, the fastest Derby week workout in 34 years. Yes, thirty-four. He's won in rain, fast dirt, and Polytrack, the surface does not affect him. He's 5 for 6 lifetime, sire is Danzig, only the N.A. sire with most stakes winners, ever, Lure, Danzig Connection, Pine Bluff, etc. HS is one of 5 horses in the Derby with 2 graded Stakes wins under his belt. At 18-1 he seems like a really good bargain, right up there with War Emblem at 22-1 and Monarchos in low double-digits [both of whom I had along with Smarty and Barbaro, both posted here]. In final race only Circular Quay and Curlin put up [slightly] better Beyers, and that was CQuay's only win this year. He looks great physically, one track writer called him 'Awesome-looking' before he ran today. Curlin is about 5-1 now while Hard Spun is 17-1. I think I can spot the underlay and overlay. Right now I'm thinking some order of Cowtown Cat, Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Nobiz/Tiago/Quay in the exotics. Of course, wait to see post position, final gallops, and track odds before I pull the final trigger. Oh, the horse that ran 57-flat in his final workout. A horse you may have heard of -- Forego, 3-time Eclipse winner, 16 major Handicaps/Stakes wins, ranked #8th best horse of the Century. So did he win the Derby? Nope, he lost to a big red horse named Secretariat, who of course set the track record.
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#15
05-01-2007, 02:49 AM
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Re: Derby Picks
I think Tiago is going to be a money burner on the bottom of the exotics, crawling home in a less than stellar SA Derby as his only credential. When the HTR pace data comes out later in the week I'll probably have have some hard numbers to back up my BS.
Curlin is perhaps going to be the biggest money burner in derby history, I realize that a lot of the historical derby 'truths' have gone by the wayside recently but no horse since 1882 has won a derby without a single race as a two year-old, no horse has won with three lifetime preps since 1915. I agree Hard Spun is a better bet than Curlin but I am not sold that this is a good spot, any hint of fragility in this race and I am passing. It'd be a small miracle if more than a couple horses avoid serious contact, let alone a horse that probably has to be close to the pace. The reason I haven't paid any attention to Cowtown Cat is also because he probably needs to be on the lead and I only see one pace horse factoring at most, not a specific horse just whichever horse benefits most from the post draw. I really think its great that everyone is trying to find an angle, a wise-guy horse or whatever, makes for good discussion, I just really feel this is going to be a chalky year, if you ran this race 100 times, I think the big five of CQ, SD, NoBiz, SS and Saturday would win at least 90.
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#17
05-01-2007, 03:54 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
I just really feel this is going to be a chalky year, if you ran this race 100 times, I think the big five of CQ, SD, NoBiz, SS and Saturday would win at least 90. [/ QUOTE ] That's crazy talk. HSpun, CC, and Curlin have won 2 Graded stakes each -- only 2 other horses have done so in the field.
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#19
05-01-2007, 06:30 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well. [/ QUOTE ] As soon as you get them to run this field 100x, I will prop bet you up to $100k at your option.
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#20
05-01-2007, 06:36 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well. [/ QUOTE ] As soon as you get them to run this field 100x, I will prop bet you up to $100k at your option. [/ QUOTE ] Whoooooooo, ballsy.
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