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#11
02-04-2007, 11:25 PM
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Re: Why no FG attempt?
wiper I hear ya on the bridge jumping. I had the -400 +17.5 on the Bears for my whole Greek account and thought I was kissing it goodbye.
There are multiple reasons why he should have kicked a FG and multiple reasons not to. Up 12 with under 2 minutes and the Bears having 1 timeout left. Even if the Bears get a miracle TD they whould have to get a miracle on side kick recovery and then another miracle TD to win. Come on Dungy knew what he was doing and he knew the young Grossman wasn't gonna pull this out. Only 2 QBs in the game right now would have a shot at something like this, Peyton and Brady. -Brendan 
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#14
02-05-2007, 01:34 AM
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Re: Why no FG attempt?
[ QUOTE ]
wiper I hear ya on the bridge jumping. I had the -400 +17.5 on the Bears for my whole Greek account and thought I was kissing it goodbye. [/ QUOTE ] [censored], last night i had 95% of my bankroll bet on silva, mirko and rampage...luckily for me, all 3 of those came in, as well as the biggest 3 bets i made tonight... 67%ish increase in my bodog account since friday, between multiple bridge-jumpers and a 4th place finish in an MTT...
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#15
02-05-2007, 02:12 AM
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Re: Why no FG attempt?
[ QUOTE ]
What if the Bears block it and run it back for a TD [/ QUOTE ] What if the running back fumbles on the 4th down play and they run it back for a TD? I had no bets riding on the matter, I just thought it was a bad decision not to kick the FG. Being up 15 instead of 12 forces two miracle TDs AND a 2pt convert just to tie.
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#17
02-05-2007, 04:32 AM
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Re: Why no FG attempt?
I am absolutely flabbergasted as to why they didn't kick the FG. Sure it may have been blocked, but what % of the time does that happen? It has to be under 3%. Bad snap, just fall on the ball.
Being up 12 is quite a bit different than being up 15. In both cases the other team would have to score two touchdowns, but in the latter case you would have to also convert a 2 pt conversion just for a TIE and the game is pretty much out of reach. If the miracle happens, in one case you LOSE the game, but in the other you put yourself squarely with a 50% to still win the game. I am still at a loss for any real reason as to why they didn't kick it, especially in such a huge game. My IND -6.5/Over 48 parlay really hurts today. If this were college, I would say the fix was in on the under. DN
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#18
02-05-2007, 04:36 AM
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Re: Why no FG attempt?
they weren't worried about the block, im sure it was the bears getting the chance to return the kick. The offense had done nothing, no point in letting hester pull of somethin crazy.
only thing i don't understand, why on earth did they run the ball?
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#20
02-05-2007, 02:23 PM
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Re: Why no FG attempt?
[ QUOTE ]
I am absolutely flabbergasted as to why they didn't kick the FG. Sure it may have been blocked, but what % of the time does that happen? It has to be under 3%. Bad snap, just fall on the ball. Being up 12 is quite a bit different than being up 15. In both cases the other team would have to score two touchdowns, but in the latter case you would have to also convert a 2 pt conversion just for a TIE and the game is pretty much out of reach. If the miracle happens, in one case you LOSE the game, but in the other you put yourself squarely with a 50% to still win the game. I am still at a loss for any real reason as to why they didn't kick it, especially in such a huge game. My IND -6.5/Over 48 parlay really hurts today. If this were college, I would say the fix was in on the under. DN [/ QUOTE ] rjp is correct here. At this point in the game, its all about controlling the environment and maximizing chances for the win. Kicking the FG opens up a "wild card" play which could, in turn, open up the chance of the bears getting an additional miracle to win the game. Running the ball gives you a chance to get the first down and end it right there, or it gives the bears the ball deep in their own half with no time outs. Even when you give the bears the ball, it is not on an open play. Therefore, you can control the situation better by giving up plays in the middle of the field to grind clock (which is exactly what happened). Dungy did the smart thing and it is completely consistent with how he's coached playoff games in his career (conservative).
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