Absolute badbeat jackpot odds - Page 2

Bobo Fett · #11 08-06-2007, 01:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Surely most of those hands were not at BBJ tables.

[/ QUOTE ]
One doesn't have to be at a BBJ table to determine if a given hand would have qualified if it HAD been a BBJ table. I assume PA just checked for hands that would have qualified, regardless of what table they were actually played at. And I don't think he likes being called Shirley. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

RiverFenix · #12 08-06-2007, 10:19 PM

His first initial # probably assumes any hand that could potentially hit a BBJ goes to showdown. So you're not playing some hands like 52s UTG even though it could possibly hit.

Pokerlogist · #13 08-06-2007, 11:28 PM

My improved “ballpark” estimate of the chances of hitting the AP BBJ is one in every 500,000 dealt hands (probability of .000002 per dealt hand). At a 6-man BBJ full table the chances are .000012 that someone will hit and you share in the prize or 1 in 83,333 rounds. At a 9 person full table it would be .000018 or 1 in 55,555 rounds. These estimates are based on data from the wizardofodds web site, news articles, and poker tracker data using two different methods.

1. Empirical: In a news article, AP officials reported that nearly 1 million hands were played from from July 3 to July11=8 days which would suggest about 125,000 hands per day. Then during the 35 days between June 25 and July 30 we can estimate that 4.375 million hands were played at the BBJ tables. There were 9 BBJ winners during that time period , so someone won approximately every 486,667 hands ( rounding to 1 in 500,000).

2. Mathematical: Based on wizardofodds.com data, the probability of a BBJ –where all hands are seen to showdown- is 0.00000519 per single hand =1 per 192,678 hands. This is assuming all eligible straight flush and pocket pair cards (suited any gap connectors and pp 88 or more) are played until showdown and all BBJ tables have 4 or more persons. We know that players fold many of these potential BBJ hands preflop and and on the flop. On average a typical player sees a flop 20%-30% of the time so 70-80% of all starting hands are folded preflop. Pocket pairs and suited connectors as a group are folded less of he time since they are generally considered stronger and more playable. Using my own poker tracker data as a guide, I get a rough estimate that 40% of the eligible BBJ hands see flop. If anyone can get a more precise estimate of this figure let me know. So using this figure, the probability of a single hand BBJ in actual play is reduced from a showdown level to .40(.00000519)=.00002 or 1 in 500,000 hands which is similar to the empirical result.

Pokeraddict · #14 08-07-2007, 01:34 PM

No actually none of the hands are at a BBJ table.

Gigi · #15 08-11-2007, 12:15 AM

Does the BBJ really hurt low limits that much when it comes to tables with horrible play?

Let's assume there's two tables, one with pot avg of $9.50 the other $10.00 with a BBJ drop of $0.50. Is there a big difference between the two?

My real life question is should I play a $1/2 limit bbj table if the avg pot size is $16?

Niediam · #16 08-11-2007, 01:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does the BBJ really hurt low limits that much when it comes to tables with horrible play?

Let's assume there's two tables, one with pot avg of $9.50 the other $10.00 with a BBJ drop of $0.50. Is there a big difference between the two?

My real life question is should I play a $1/2 limit bbj table if the avg pot size is $16?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's put it this way...

In my experience on a rather good 1/2 limit full ring table like you are talking about a very good player (aka far better than the average 2+2er) can win at around 2bb/100. At a 9 person table the average player will win approximately 11% of the hands. But since our hero is a good he will be playing fewer hands and will probably win around 8% of them. The rake from the BBJ for those eight hands will be an extra $4 which of course comes out to 2bb/100. Yes that means he would be breaking even (not counting rakeback, bonuses, or BBJ equity of course). Now just think how bad it would be if the table isn't awesome or if the player is only decent...

Gigi · #17 08-11-2007, 01:14 AM

I still seem to be making a profit ever since BBJ was introduced because of the bad players, and more importantly table selection. Only the long term will tell and I closely monitor PT stats.

I'm playing 6 Max, which is far worst for BBJ tables, I know. I'll only play if the avg pot size is 16 big bets and usually its because there's two fish with 75% VIP. Once the fish lose their money I leave. When I see 20 big bet pots, I don't even wait to post the blind. Also with the new point system, you can limp a lot more if you know the pot size is going to be more than $10 bucks that hand, since you get back 25 cents, and 50 cents if if the pot size hits $20.

Niediam · #18 08-11-2007, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I still seem to be making a profit ever since BBJ was introduced because of the bad players, and more importantly table selection. Only the long term will tell and I closely monitor PT stats.

I'm playing 6 Max, which is far worst for BBJ tables, I know. I'll only play if the avg pot size is 16 big bets and usually its because there's two fish with 75% VIP. Once the fish lose their money I leave. When I see 20 big bet pots, I don't even wait to post the blind. Also with the new point system, you can limp a lot more if you know the pot size is going to be more than $10 bucks that hand, since you get back 25 cents, and 50 cents if if the pot size hits $20.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean big blinds instead of bit bets.

You sure that the ARP points are worth that much? It seems that at that rate Absolute wouldn't be making any money...

Gigi · #19 08-11-2007, 03:01 AM

Yeah I meant big blinds, I can't edit my post for some reason. I'm talking about the bonus system which credits you with $5 at 20 points. $5/20 = 25 cents. Also there's no 50 cents at $20 pots I got that confused with the ARP points where you get more when pot is bigger.

Niediam · #20 08-11-2007, 03:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I meant big blinds, I can't edit my post for some reason. I'm talking about the bonus system which credits you with $5 at 20 points. $5/20 = 25 cents. Also there's no 50 cents at $20 pots I got that confused with the ARP points where you get more when pot is bigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can only get 1 bonus point per hand and it's $5 at 40 points.