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#12
09-13-2007, 06:54 PM
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Re: 25nl: Flopped nut flush, turn line?
[ QUOTE ]
You really weren't ever planning on folding just because the board pairs were you? You aren't deep enough to consider that. It isn't even at all a certainty that he even has a set right now anyway. [/ QUOTE ] No, I wasn't planning to fold, nor was I worried about getting outdrawn. However, once the board paired I knew that the nut flush might not be good anymore but pushed anyway because I felt committed. So I guess I played it well if I read all the replies posted so far. But the question how deep you have to be before considering another river line than a no-brainer push still stands because [ QUOTE ] pretty f'n deep if your opponent plays sets this poorly. [/ QUOTE ] isn't really helpfull. [ QUOTE ] On this hand even if villain have KK,99,77,33 (he may also have KK with a heart same with QQ, AK) you are a 77% favourite to win the hand. IMHO thinking about folding the river if the board paired is symptomatic of the "Monsters under the bed" syndrom, which have been quite frequent lately on the forums (The "should i fold trips" kind of topics). You are a HUGE favorite, extract the most money that you can when you have an edge (especially an edge this large). [/ QUOTE ] I really don't understand your post. Yes if he has those hands, then I want to bet the turn for value, because we have this big edge. But once the river pairs the board, then 'poof', away is our edge against those hands. You suggest making a decision on the turn and stick to it no matter what cards hit, probably because of stack sizes (i.e. being comitted when making a turn decision)? I mean, you don't stack off with AA every time on the turn because you were an 80% favourite pre-flop, right? Isn't re-evaluating every single street, i.e. adjusting your play to the cards that hit and how your opponent reacts, very important to be able to be a big winner in the long run? Or is all this just impossible with 100BB stacks and is the turn the last street to take a decision and stick with it? Regarding the 'monster under the bed syndrom': I think this is a not so respectful way to look at posters who try to get better by learning to recognize situations where their big made hands might be beat by a draw that just got there. Isn't the whole point to playing solid poker getting it with the best of it, and not to pay of the bigger made hand or the draw that hit? I realize that playing perfect in that regard is impossible, because you don't know opp's cards and therefore have to assign a range of hands on which you determine your equity etc.. And that leads to tough post-flop decisions and the 'should I fold .... posts'. I hope I don't offend anyone because of this post. All I ask for is some elaboration about the subject, because "never, ever, ever folding!" a certain hand seems kind of a big leak to me, and the whole idea of planning a line and sticking with it regardless of the cards that hit seems weird to me... Hope that made some sense... 
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#13
09-13-2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: 25nl: Flopped nut flush, turn line?
[ QUOTE ]
Bet $7.5. Shove ALL rivers. [/ QUOTE ] You cant be afraid of a paired board on the river. Bet your hand but don't blow a diamond draw out of the hand.
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#14
09-13-2007, 09:10 PM
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Re: 25nl: Flopped nut flush, turn line?
[ QUOTE ]
I really don't understand your post. Yes if he has those hands, then I want to bet the turn for value, because we have this big edge. But once the river pairs the board, then 'poof', away is our edge against those hands. You suggest making a decision on the turn and stick to it no matter what cards hit, probably because of stack sizes (i.e. being comitted when making a turn decision)? I mean, you don't stack off with AA every time on the turn because you were an 80% favourite pre-flop, right? Isn't re-evaluating every single street, i.e. adjusting your play to the cards that hit and how your opponent reacts, very important to be able to be a big winner in the long run? Or is all this just impossible with 100BB stacks and is the turn the last street to take a decision and stick with it? [/ QUOTE ] Basically the problem is that Villain range is wider than that [88+; ATs+; KTs+; QJs+; AJo+; KQo] you can't be sure that he has the hands you fear the most (KK,99,77,33 i just put them in my post to show the edge you have). Even when the board paired on the turn you are way ahead of his possible range making this a +EV play (vs a 9% range on the river you are a 94% favourite, vs any pair you are an 82% favourite) you have to make this play because it will be profitable in the long run. Plus the fact that if you bet the turn as stated you will be commited. You have to re-evaluate during a hand that's fairly obvious but in this particular situation you can't fold the nuts for the previously stated reasons. [ QUOTE ] Regarding the 'monster under the bed syndrom': I think this is a not so respectful way to look at posters who try to get better by learning to recognize situations where their big made hands might be beat by a draw that just got there. Isn't the whole point to playing solid poker getting it with the best of it, and not to pay of the bigger made hand or the draw that hit? I realize that playing perfect in that regard is impossible, because you don't know opp's cards and therefore have to assign a range of hands on which you determine your equity etc.. And that leads to tough post-flop decisions and the 'should I fold .... posts'. I hope I don't offend anyone because of this post. All I ask for is some elaboration about the subject, because "never, ever, ever folding!" a certain hand seems kind of a big leak to me, and the whole idea of planning a line and sticking with it regardless of the cards that hit seems weird to me... Hope that made some sense... [/ QUOTE ] It's not disrespectful in my mind at all (I may have expressed it badly...) , everybody is here to get better, but you can't always fold because of the fear of being outdrawn. I'm not saying that you should never fold, just that when you put your stack in with the best of it you have played your hand well (as it was the case here), regardless of the results. Hope that helps. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#15
09-13-2007, 11:08 PM
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Re: 25nl: Flopped nut flush, turn line?
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, thanks for your responses. This is how it played out: Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($10.65, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">HERO bets $8</font>, MP1 calls. River: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($26.65, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">HERO is all-in $13.9</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 calls all-in $13.65</font>. Uncalled bets: $0.25 returned to HERO. Results: Final pot: $53.95 <font color="#ffffff">HERO shows QH AH </font> <font color="#ffffff">MP1 shows 3S 3D </font> So, once the river paired the board I really expected to be beat by a full-house and maybe be ahead of some lower flush or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hand, and since I wouldn't fold at this point anyway, I shoved it. Nothing I could do, right? Interesting thing then however: how deep have remaining stacks got to be before an AI river bet doesn't become automatic and, for example, a bet-fold line would be the way to go? [/ QUOTE ] With $22 behind and $10 in the pot, when you bet $8, you're giving him 18:8 odds or 2.25:1. If he has a set, he has 10 outs and is about a 3.4:1 underdog to make a boat. So, he needs to make up 1.15x your turn bet on the river to make the call breakeven (3.4-2.25). When you bet 8, you have $14 left, but he only needs to make $9.20 off you to make the call breakeven (8*1.15 = 9.20). So, if he feels that you have a flush and will call an all in on the river (very reasonable), then you are giving him the correct odds to make the play profitable. If you bet smaller, let's say $5, you are giving 3:1 on a 3.4:1 shot, so if he stacks you on the river, it's very profitable since you have $17 behind. I guess the advantage of betting small is that you prevent yourself from getting committed and make the river fold easier, if you decide that folding is an option when the board pairs. Now, let's look at a bigger bet. If you bet the pot ($10) on the turn, he is getting 2:1 on a 3.4:1 draw. He needs to make up 1.4x the bet, which is $14. When you bet $10, you have $12 left, so even if you call 100% of the time, he loses. When considering all this, we also need to balance out bet size with his possible hands since he doesn't always have a set. I think the most important thing is to think about the bet size and then your river action. Personally, in the situation, I'd probably bet around $7, but after considering things, I think betting the pot might be best given the stack sizes in this situation. I don't like betting $5 because even if he gets you to call a small value bet on the river like $5, he is getting the right odds. That being said, betting the pot will probably fold out all the Khx, which might make it less profitable? It's hard to say. Any thoughts guys?
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