Train wreck hand - stud hi - Page 2

chucky · #11 10-23-2007, 06:18 PM

My problem is that hero jammed 3rd and 4th so hard that he cant fold even though it is the right thing to do. Jamming 3rd is problematic because any player with live cards will come along because he knows aces are dead and he will be paid off.
On 5th hero has 5 live two pair outs and no shot of making a fh. The other guy with aces may or may not have 2 pair yet, and some guy who has been passively calling suddenly decides to raise. If hero had not bloated the pot early, folding would be easy.

PoorLawyer · #12 10-23-2007, 07:38 PM

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My problem is that hero jammed 3rd and 4th so hard that he cant fold even though it is the right thing to do. Jamming 3rd is problematic because any player with live cards will come along because he knows aces are dead and he will be paid off.
On 5th hero has 5 live two pair outs and no shot of making a fh. The other guy with aces may or may not have 2 pair yet, and some guy who has been passively calling suddenly decides to raise. If hero had not bloated the pot early, folding would be easy.

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Agreed. All instincts say fold, but I'm not sure thats correct based on the math.

chucky · #13 10-23-2007, 08:25 PM

Hero is getting 21.67:3 but lets examine hand equity on 5th.
Lets say villian is a donk who only has two pair 50% of time. If villian even has 3 fh outs villian with make fh at least 14%. This means that 64% of time you are drawing dead barring runner runner fh. Lets say that you if you dont make two pair on 6th, you will get a card with at least 2 more outs. Well, 32% of the time you make two pair (31/36 x 26/33). Your two pair would have to win just under 50% of the time that you make it in order to make calling down correct. Given that Seat 1 can make a bigger 2 pair, I don't think 14% win is possible.

docholiday420 · #14 10-23-2007, 11:07 PM

seat 7 had rolled up sixes? That's my call so honestly i might have gotten out on fourth maybe, definitely to his raise on fifth.

Andy B · #15 10-24-2007, 12:27 AM

I wouldn't be jamming quite so much quite so early with such a dead hand myself. That would make it a lot easier to get away from your hand if and when things go south on fifth. As played, I think you're stuck.