Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kicker

[maverickai]

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3-bet the flop?

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... to find out where I'm standing? And fold to a cap? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[maverickai]

Well, actually I'm trying to apply what I learnt in SSHE, where when counting outs, back door draws can turn a folding hand, into one which you can peel. And I'm doing that here. If there's no back door outs, I would have folded.

[00Snitch]

uhhh, these backdoor outs shouldn't be counted for even half an out.

to start with, it is a 2-gapper which comes in some stupidly small percentage of the time. i think it's around 1.5%.

a theoretical one card draw will come in slightly less that 5% of the time, so a draw that comes in 1.5% of the time is woth significantly less that one out.

secondly, this isn't even a genuine 2-gapper, it is a 1 card 2-gapper which means that you will have limited implied odds if you do hit it (because it looks so obvious) and there is a much higher chance of splitting the pot.

3rdly, it's not even to the nuts.

[OziBattler]

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After 121 hands you should know by know if he's capable of being this aggressive with AK, but it looks more like the board pairing has made him scared for his overpair. I doubt you're ahead here, so just check behind.

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orly? I disagree. Look at MP2s stats, especially his aggro factos...this guy is SO betting the river if he has an overpair. I think there is value in betting this river...you might get a curiousity call with AK, 88, 99 etc

did you bet and he CRed?

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Hands I lose:
QQ 2 hands
JJ 2 hands
AT 8 hands
Total hands = 12

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as I mentioned....I think he bets all of these hands on the river. I know i would in his spot and his aggro is higher than mine. Maybe his aggro is high because he folds too much or when he has A high. Mav, any reads on his Showdown standards?

[tiltaholic]

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3-bet the flop?

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... to find out where I'm standing? And fold to a cap? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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no. i was being serious...
it seems that this is an auto-raise for villain, and you can easily have the best hand on the flop.

[Blzdwrath]

I would check behind on the river here. I think we are getting check raised far more often here than we are getting called by a worse hand. Look at the villians actions on the earlier streets. He raises PF with what most likely is a good hand TT+, AQo+? He raises the flop. This can be either because he has an overpair and hes running protection or he has UI overcards and wants a freecard. Well his action on the turn makes the freecard play unlikely so we have to give him credit most of the time for a made hand. On the river I think villian is either A. trying to get max value you from you or B. taking a weak line because you might have been calling down with a 4. Either way I don't think betting here is +EV given villians action.

[OziBattler]

Maverick, with those SD stats i bet this is betting alot rather than folding too much.

To anyone fearing a checkraise, why is that? all OP has done is call call call. Villians play on every street is exactly how some tags/2+2ers play AK, AQ, AJs etc. We have no read to say this guy will get fancy here....If he has AA-TT he IS betting this river 99% of the time. Dont let him showdown for free....bet and make him make an agonising call w AdKs just to make sure you arent bluffing him in a huge pot...after all...he only has to win with A high a very small percentage of the time, right? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Blzd, your all over the place with that post but specifically...

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Well his action on the turn makes the freecard play unlikely so we have to give him credit most of the time for a made hand

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when hands are 3 handed like this people in the micros have been known to give advice to fire one last barrel and bet the turn in this spot, especially if villian (in this case OP) is known to be tight and able to fold.