Should I fold somewhere before the river?

[PorkPieHat]

[ QUOTE ]
betting the flop prolly will never give you any information, but at worst it's marginal and a few good things can happen like ppl folding lows or pairs/2pairs (or turned/rivered 2 pairs)...

...if you ck/raise sometimes with low and strong high (made/draw) then ck/call isn't so bad

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you will ever fold a low here, and because of that you don't want to encourage ANYONE to fold. Betting might do just that. Check/folding allows you to possibly hit your str8 and then see a cheap river, where you can then carve up the lows (of which you need to see more than one to turn a profit on the hand).

[Buzz]

Sparkman - There are various possible cards on the river that might be good for part of the pot for Hero, but that don't matter because Hero cannot call a bet after one of these cards.

For example, the deuce of hearts might possibly provide Hero with a winning low or a tying low, but Hero cannot call a bet after the deuce of hearts appears on the river.

Indeed, after the seven of clubs on the turn, we have to give up low altogether, because Hero cannot call a river bet after any low non-spade, except possibly a four.

What we need to do is see how each possible out for Hero fares for high against four opponents with random cards. It is true that Hero's opponents do not have random cards, but we don't have any specific information regarding the cards they do have.

At any rate, after the seven of clubs on the turn, Hero possibly has thirteen outs, Qs, Js, Ts, 9s, 6s, 3s, 2s, 7s, 8s, Kc, Kh, 4c, and 4h. But only the first four of these are the 100% nuts for half the pot. Considering the size of the pot already and conservatively figuring one more bet on the river if the river is favorable for Hero, Hero will win five bets when he wins with any of the thirteen outs listed above. When he folds to a bet on the river, Hero will lose one bet. When he calls a bet on the river but loses, Hero will lose two bets.

<ul type="square">Approximately,
Qs, Js, Ts, 9s win high 100%.
6s, 3s, 2s win high 95%, lose high 5%.
7s, 8s win high 52%, lose high 48%.
Kc, Kh win high 22%, lose high 78%.
4h, 4c win high 13%, tie high 0.2%, lose high 87%.

8c would win high about 6%, tie high a trivial amount and lose high a whopping 94%, and is therefore not worth considering.
**
Here’s the math for each possibly playable turn card:
Qs, Js, Ts, 9s: 4*5 = 20
6s, 3s, 2s: 3*5*.95-3*2*.05 = 14
7s, 8s: 2*5*.523-2*2*.477 = 3
Kc, Kh: 2*5*.22-2*2*.78 = -0.9 (and therefore unplayable because it is negative)
4c, 4h: 2*5*13-2*2*.87 = -2.2 (and therefore unplayable)
and all the other cards are unplayable, making a grand total of 35 unplayable river cards (and 9 playable river cards).

Thus actually only nine cards (all the spades, pairing or not) are playable on the river. Thus Hero has nine outs, and not all of them will win 100%.
**
Totaling,
20+14+3-35 = +2[/list]Thus it’s very close, but since the total is positive, Hero has favorable odds to see the river card because of the size of the pot. Because of Hero’s stupid pre-flop raise Hero is stuck in the pot after the 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn. Sorry to seem harsh, but that’s telling it like it is. (The pre-flop raise wouldn’t be stupid if it had a reasonable chance of working to steal the pot).

Without that pre-flop raise, there would simply not be quite enough in the pot for Hero to have favorable odds to continue after the 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn.

Buzz

[bbartlog]

Minor quibble with your math: the 4c, 4h are indeed unplayable (i.e. you fold to a river bet even if you call the turn bet and one of them hits). However, the Kc, Kh are not unplayable; once you call the turn bet (mostly because you're hoping for spades of course), you apparently have odds to call a single river bet. And your math reflects this: the two kings (played) give -0.9, while shuffling them into the 'unplayable' column makes them worth -2. So the total should be 20+14+3-0.9-33= +3.1

[Buzz]

Hi Bart - If Hero did continue when the river is a king, then the total would be more positive (and thus seem more favorable).

However, the truth is Hero should not continue if the river is a king, since continuing after a king itself is negative. (Don't you agree?)

And therefore, for all practical purposes, Hero folds after a king and loses one bet, rather than nine tenths of a bet.

Hero is not hoping for a spade after the river is a king because there are no more cards to come after the river.

Buzz

[bbartlog]

But according to your simulation percentages, Hero *should* call a single bet on the river if a K falls. You indicate that he will be good for high 22% of the time; 22% * 5 is greater than 1. The only reason the total for Kings is negative is because you are also including the sunk cost of the call on the turn, which makes sense in the context of the overall calculation but doesn't affect our decision to call on the river.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
But according to your simulation percentages, Hero *should* call a single bet on the river if a K falls. You indicate that he will be good for high 22% of the time; 22% * 5 is greater than 1.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Bart - You're right. Thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason the total for Kings is negative is because you are also including the sunk cost of the call on the turn, which makes sense in the context of the overall calculation but doesn't affect our decision to call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]You're right. Once we get to the river we're stuck calling if the river is a king because we win enough often enough to offset the one additional bet we lose when we usually lose.

Thanks for the correction.

Buzz

[SparkMan]

[ QUOTE ]

Thus it’s very close, but since the total is positive, Hero has favorable odds to see the river card because of the size of the pot. Because of Hero’s stupid pre-flop raise Hero is stuck in the pot after the 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn. Sorry to seem harsh, but that’s telling it like it is. (The pre-flop raise wouldn’t be stupid if it had a reasonable chance of working to steal the pot).

Without that pre-flop raise, there would simply not be quite enough in the pot for Hero to have favorable odds to continue after the 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

The VP$IP for the table was ~24% hence a raise was getting most pots HU. I was quite surprised to get 4 callers.

[Jim Morgan]

Good hand for discussion...

Not because it is a freak or anything, but because it is such a common situation in O8. The PFR is good in a tight field for sure and probably not so bad even in loose fields.

On the turn you have 7 nut outs and a handfull of dirty outs such as Kings and pairing the board with or without a spade. Had the turn been something like a Jack, winning with Kings up would be more likely.

My guess is that you can figure you have roughly 8 outs for half the pot, since pairing the board with a spade is not instant death, especially with a tight game and middle cards. 44 unseen cards and 8 outs for half puts you at almost exactly even current pot odds. Implied odds for river action are good here, so I favor calling. If I were in poor position to the better I would fold. If this round costs more than 1 big bet it is too expensive.

This is actually a nice formula here. Nut flush draw only with a made low requires 10:1 pot odds to play on turn.

[morningstar]

u might not fold a low, but that doesnt mean there aren't lows that should fold or that there aren't lows that fold and for either of those things to be beneficial for you you would need a parley of things happening (turning or rivering a card that countersfits your opp. or getting the high because he would have turned/rivered your high)...

...and no it's not a huge increase in chance to get a share (1-2%), but it's 1 of the little thingies that turn marginally negative hands to marginally positive

[morningstar]

the game was described as being übertight so it would be safe to assume that there is a chance to steal preflop or atleast limit the number of callers...

...and limiting the number of callers is enough since the hand has enough value against 1-2 opponents to ofset the lack of position