Where is the smart money going on Ohio v. Florida?

[MyTurn2Raise]

no one knows where the smart money is going

it's actually going in on both teams...I think covers.com had a story on it within the last few days

In essence, if you can beat the average line, go for it
otherwise, little value in the line


I dropped a small action bet on Florida +7.5

[MyTurn2Raise]

here's the article at covers

I predict Ohio State 27 Florida 21 FWIW

[fnurt]

It seems to me that the books would rather not set the line at 7 if they could help it, since there's obviously going to be a ton of action on this game, and 7 creates a high risk of a push meaning no profit for the house.

So it seems to me they'd move it a half-point either way if they thought they could get away with it. But they haven't, which suggests to me that the sharp bettors are on both sides and they can't justify a line move.

If my logic is completely absurd please feel free to tell me why.

[rush66]

I thought that was true until the past few days. The line is at 7 for this game currently and was at 7 from the eagles game (until late the day of the game). Both games with heavy action. BTW, this is a very good thread in my opinion.

[iggymcfly]

I was undecided when the line was at 8.5, but at 7, I feel pretty good about taking Ohio State. I'm going to wait until the afternoon and see if I can get a few cents better on the price. If the line makes one last move back toward Florida, I don't think it will happen until close to game time.

Even though it sounds cliche, I think the biggest differences are going to be coaching and QB play. Meyer runs a somewhat gimmicky offense, and with Tressel and Co. having an entire month to come up with a defensive gameplan, I think they'll counter it pretty well.

As for Leak, he just doesn't perform well under pressure. He choked away the Auburn game with two terrible turnovers late, and even in the big win over Arkansas finished 16-30 for 189 with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Florida won not by being mistake-free, but just because Arkansas made even more big mistakes. Also, this doesn't include the bowls, but the Sagarin ratings like the Buckeyes by 11 on a neutral field.

[Lori]

I'm not going to bet on this one, but I'm going to guess that such a high profile game as this one almost always has an unbeatable line.

That being said, if the Michigan result starts to encourage people to bet against OSU enough to move the line, I think I'd take OSU on that alone.

Lori

[fnurt]

I asked the question of whether the line would move back on Jan 1. The consensus (ok, it was like 2 guys) was that the effect of Michigan losing would be counterbalanced by the Big 10 beating the SEC in 2 other games that same day. I think that's probably right.

[rush66]

fnurt,

No offense, but I dont like this logic becuase I think the true sharps (syndicates and whoever else) use more for their analysis than a who beat who method.

[wiper]

my guess is smart money is going on the ohio state moneyline..

i can come up with a bunch of reasons why they wouldn't cover more than a touchdown, but i can't think of many as to why they don't win...

coaching, quarterback play, athletes, and even special teams going on one side, and a lot of things have to go right over the course of a game for the underdog to win..

[JupiterUWG]

[ QUOTE ]
After Michigan got exposed in the Rose Bowl, I would think a lot of smart money would be on Florida, as the sneaking suspicion about Ohio all year has been they are overrated.

Anyone know where the smarts are putting their money on this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

lolz at michigan getting "exposed"