OMG I folded set vs mega action 150BB deep..100 NL 6max

[aislephive]

Raise preflop blah blah.

I think this fold is good given how much action there is in front of us, somebody has a flush here pretty much always. I'd be willing to go to war with one player though, given the chance we have them oversetted, drawing to one out, or we have a bunch of outs to pair the board vs a flush.

[TianYuan]

But we CAN'T fold here mang. 33% to win vs a range of any flush and 33 (since no one has queens here obv). Add in the possiblity of SB shoving over with AcXx because of the 2 cold calls (those look pretty weak) and I think we should call. There's money to win already.

Oh [censored] I forgot that one of the players is half-stacked. Hmn.

37% to win vs a reasonable range if we count vs just the guy who has us covered. I wish I didn't suck at math so I could figure out how much we need when taking into account the shortstack (with the same range).

[PLAYOFFS]

reraise to 50 on the flop and it's an easy decision from there. I hate folding sets but in this situation. Possibility of 33 for any of them? I think that at worst case scenario that you still have outs (you can't put someone on QQ. Tough decision but a fold IMO if reraise as I said and get pushed.

[bilbo-san]

Glad I'd never be in this spot. Cause I'd never limp preflop. And if someone hit me over the head and limped for me, I'd 3-bet the first time around when BB raised (which would price me in to calling if SB pushes). I know he's a rock, but given his stats he could easily have limped preflop with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and have a "monster" here, or he could have 33.

As played I think SB has either 33 or a flush. It's close, if his range is only 33 and flushes. I discounted a lot of flushes that SB shouldn't have (like 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) in this range (basically all suited Ks and As except A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and all 3-gappers or better:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.022 secs 1,485,000 games/sec

Board: 3c 5c Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.558% 39.35% 00.21% 12856 67.50 { 5h5s }
Hand 1: 60.442% 60.24% 00.21% 19679 67.50 { 33, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc4c, Kc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c4c, 6c4c, 4c2c }

I realise that BB complicates thinks, but even if BB's range is exactly equivalent to SB's (I think it's wider. It includes more flushes because he's in the BB, but it also inludes more TP+[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hands because he feels "priced in" to call SB's push, whereas SB's b/3bet line is very often a monster) you have 33% equity in the side pot.

So it's close. Too lazy to do the math and at the table I'd probably freeze up and tilt-call, lol.

[TianYuan]

Ok I suck at math but if we call, and their range is any flush +33.. We have 33% equity for the mainpot and 37% for the sidepot

The mainpot is 212$ after our call, the sodepot is 190$ after our call.

So we stand to win 140$ or so from both pots, for a 144$ call..

So guess a call is -3$?

Could someone who's not an idiot when it comes to math tell me if I'm right plz?

[TianYuan]

Ugh I suck, *Sidepot
*-4$