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#1
09-12-2007, 03:06 PM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
[ QUOTE ]
the second hand is a clear bet on the turn because you are ahead here way too often to give a free card that he will incorrectly pay for. [/ QUOTE ] a bet isn't bad at all. my issue is the large % of time i get c/r on that turn. when i have some time later i'll lay my thoughts out as to why i think it's a good spot to value check. 
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#2
09-12-2007, 05:21 PM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] the second hand is a clear bet on the turn because you are ahead here way too often to give a free card that he will incorrectly pay for. [/ QUOTE ] a bet isn't bad at all. my issue is the large % of time i get c/r on that turn. when i have some time later i'll lay my thoughts out as to why i think it's a good spot to value check. [/ QUOTE ] without a specific tard read on the guy I'm going to feel really good about bet/folding the turn.
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#3
09-12-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
[ QUOTE ]
james I'm fine checking the turn in hand 1 as this guy will be bluffing all the time and thus insuring that a bet is going in either way (also, he's never a folding a better hand if you bet). the second hand is a clear bet on the turn because you are ahead here way too often to give a free card that he will incorrectly pay for. [/ QUOTE ] This is pretty much exactly my thinking. -McGee
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#4
09-12-2007, 04:29 PM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
[ QUOTE ]
one is short and one is FR. can you tell which is which? fwiw, i don't think it will effect the ranges much since even the FR game was pretty tight with(on avg.) only a few to the flop. [/ QUOTE ] I know from first-hand experience this isn't true. Full ring players (particularly in smaller stakes games) tend to defend tighter and tend to play their hand striaght up post-flop more often barring a read. They're used to running into hands and not having to defend against wide ranges.
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#5
09-12-2007, 08:09 PM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] one is short and one is FR. can you tell which is which? fwiw, i don't think it will effect the ranges much since even the FR game was pretty tight with(on avg.) only a few to the flop. [/ QUOTE ] I know from first-hand experience this isn't true. Full ring players (particularly in smaller stakes games) tend to defend tighter and tend to play their hand striaght up post-flop more often barring a read. They're used to running into hands and not having to defend against wide ranges. [/ QUOTE ] i generally agree with this point, Fnordy. my above quote was being "game specific" not "game-type specific". the table was tight so many steal scenarios were playing out in very aggressive fashions. for this reason i said it wouldn't effect the ranges much; it was in reference to this particular table. not FR versus SH in general.
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#6
09-15-2007, 04:05 AM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
Hand 1: Preflop is thin, but fine. I like the c/c on the turn. It's terrible if he checks behind with his 6-15 outter. As played, river is fine, but history and opponent dependent. There are still 5 cards that are bluffs for him (A, K, Q, 9, 8), though he should be checking behind most aces.
Hand 2: I bet/fold the turn, but a value check is not bad. As played, fold this river. Very few hands that are calling this flop are behind you at this point. This is a not a bad time to turn-value check, but you don't have to call all rivers. This and a K or a T are the other ones.
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#7
09-15-2007, 08:28 AM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: Preflop is thin, but fine. I like the c/c on the turn. It's terrible if he checks behind with his 6-15 outter. [/ QUOTE ] so do you like a turn bet or check? i'm confused. and i really doubt he's not betting a hand with equity as significant as an 8-15 outer(and much, much worse). [ QUOTE ] Hand 2: I bet/fold the turn, but a value check is not bad. As played, fold this river. Very few hands that are calling this flop are behind you at this point. This is a not a bad time to turn-value check, but you don't have to call all rivers. This and a K or a T are the other ones. [/ QUOTE ] i can't comfortably bet/fold the turn in this situation without risking the folding of a winner too often. so if i'm resigned to calling down, i want to expand the range of my opponent(since i have a "marginal" holding this has the effect of increasing my equity in the hand since it skews his holdings to include much weaker hands than would simply call my turn bet). when i check that turn, i absolutely must call any river. that turn check opens up his range considerably. he will often fire any two cards in an effort to pick up the pot. to combat that, i'm showing down every time in that scenario.
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#8
09-15-2007, 07:44 PM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
To be honest, I confused myself on hand 1. I think you are correct that he will bet any draw there given the weak nature of your line.
[ QUOTE ] when i check that turn, i absolutely must call any river. that turn check opens up his range considerably. he will often fire any two cards in an effort to pick up the pot. to combat that, i'm showing down every time in that scenario. [/ QUOTE ] I think calling ANY river in a lot of spots is a major leak. he may fire any two cards on that river, but you need to think of his range when he peels the flop. Give me one hand he has that does not include a Q, J, T, 9 by this point. Kx <3s does not make up enough of his range for you to be good 1/4 times. There will be times that you are bluffed here, but not enough for you to make a +EV call.
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#9
09-15-2007, 08:50 PM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
[ QUOTE ]
I think calling ANY river in a lot of spots is a major leak. [/ QUOTE ] i don't do it in "alot" of spots, i'm doing it in one and it's a blind steal situation. [ QUOTE ] he may fire any two cards on that river, but you need to think of his range when he peels the flop. Give me one hand he has that does not include a Q, J, T, 9 by this point. [/ QUOTE ] how about most any Ax, a heart draw, 22-77, 78, K8, and more that i can't come up with off the top of my head. in other words it can easily be 25% of his range. after the game i'll try to expound if you don't believe me.
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#10
09-15-2007, 08:35 AM
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Re: Standard Blind Steal Situations
hand one is quite a different line, btw. i go, go, stop, stop.
i use it on occasion in situations like these by grabbing initiative early in the hand OOP, but relenquish it on the big streets if i'm planning on showing down regardless of what the board brings(for the most part). it tends to build a pot early when my hand is often best. a common result on later streets is an increase in the bluffing frequency of our opponent. combine this with preserving my effective odds postflop(plus a couple other benefits) and it is a line that can be situationally acceptable. i don't really have the time to get into the nitty gritty of when/why i use it but it can be correct when OOP against an aggressive opponent against whom you are wanting to showdown.
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