Freddie Deeb lays down KK preflop in FW WPT - Page 2

DCJ311 · #1 11-15-2007, 09:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Notice the limper has pretty much no folding equity and there is a reraise in front of him, so you have to assume he was trapping and probably has AA/KK.

The fold was probably good, because the limper was six times more likely to have AA than KK since Deeb had KK. Given the action, it is unlikely the limper has less than KK.

The reraiser is correct to call with TT, because of the pot odds he is getting. Deeb has put in many fewer chips and does not have the pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh seriously? I could be wrong but I think Deeb put in about 20-25% of his stack preflop with KK. I believe Myung put in about 40% of his stack effectively, and I strongly believe it would be way better to lay down the TT there than the KK, pot odds or not. To say that he is unlikely to have have AA or KK there then say it's correct to call with TT is pretty absurd IMO. The pot odds aren't good enough if the opponent has only AA/KK...

BTW the first thing that struck me about this hand is how badly Myung played. Folding PF is so obvious.

betgo · #2 11-15-2007, 11:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Notice the limper has pretty much no folding equity and there is a reraise in front of him, so you have to assume he was trapping and probably has AA/KK.

The fold was probably good, because the limper was six times more likely to have AA than KK since Deeb had KK. Given the action, it is unlikely the limper has less than KK.

The reraiser is correct to call with TT, because of the pot odds he is getting. Deeb has put in many fewer chips and does not have the pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh seriously? I could be wrong but I think Deeb put in about 20-25% of his stack preflop with KK. I believe Myung put in about 40% of his stack effectively, and I strongly believe it would be way better to lay down the TT there than the KK, pot odds or not. To say that he is unlikely to have have AA or KK there then say it's correct to call with TT is pretty absurd IMO. The pot odds aren't good enough if the opponent has only AA/KK...

BTW the first thing that struck me about this hand is how badly Myung played. Folding PF is so obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Myung is getting almost the pot odds if he knows the limper has AA/KK, and sometimes the limper has AK or something.

Maybe Myung should have folded or flat called initially. The early position limps and small reraise may have looked suspicious, but if the limpers were limping reasonably often and Deeb was playing aggro and making that kind of play without a big pair maybe not.

More reason for Deeb to call if he put in 25% of his stack initially, but again the pot odds are real important here. If the limper usually has aces, it is still a good fold.

DCJ311 · #3 11-15-2007, 08:31 PM

OK but I feel like it needs to be taken into account that Myung can be making a move here with a hand that KK crushes a vast amount of the time. The limper could easily be making a move with QQ/AK in this spot with the amount of chips he has. That possibility combined with the extreme likelihood that Deeb has Myung crushed most of the time makes it nearly unjustifiable to fold KK after putting in 25% of his stack in.

betgo · #4 11-15-2007, 08:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK but I feel like it needs to be taken into account that Myung can be making a move here with a hand that KK crushes a vast amount of the time. The limper could easily be making a move with QQ/AK in this spot with the amount of chips he has. That possibility combined with the extreme likelihood that Deeb has Myung crushed most of the time makes it nearly unjustifiable to fold KK after putting in 25% of his stack in.

[/ QUOTE ]
The limper is not making a move. He know Myung is pot committed. Even if he limped AK, he might fold it to this action. This is also live and Deeb may have some tells on the limpreraiser, as well as a read on what he is capable of.

I probably would not make this fold, but there is a reason Deeb thought so long. It is a close decision.

#5 11-17-2007, 09:29 AM

betgo · #6 11-17-2007, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Deeb and Myung are both fish. I'd have mucked this immediately when it got back to me. I wouldn't have been happy about it and i'd have been cussing to anybody who was listening and trying to strangle both other players in the hand...but i'd not even think about it...this hand is getting mucked. no thought required.

[/ QUOTE ]

Myung is getting 3-1 on his money, so this is a close decision and I may call with TT on the off chance the limpreraiser has AK or something.

Myung's call and Deeb's fold to the limpreraise are not terrible.

Deeb's 3xBB raise at two limpers is a donk play and tell, but maybe it is OK if Deeb has been making that kind of play before.

It depends somewhat on reads, but I am not crazy about Myung's pot committing reraise with TT after two early position limpers and a raise to 3xBB. There is just too much chance someone has him dominated.

None of Myung's or Deeb's plays in themselves were terrible, but I agree that the whole impression is fishy. I also agree that the limpreraiser played the hand the best.

Hollywade · #7 11-18-2007, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Deeb and Myung are both fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a little harsh...especially when referring to Freddy.

Hollywade · #8 11-18-2007, 09:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this hand is getting mucked. no thought required.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are folding the second nuts short handed immediately without even considering it? What are you, a robot? To say that you would not even consider putting it in there with KK in this spot is a bit ridiculous.

List · #9 11-19-2007, 01:32 PM

If the range is AA/KK, I can't understand how anyone would argue that the TT is closer to a call than the KK. TT is getting a bit worse than 3:1. Deeb seems to have around 900k, so he's getting about 3:1. Vs AA/KK, he's 22.6%, so he almost has it. Obviously if TT is a call for Myung, KK is a call for Deeb. Given that he has 22.6 vs the range, and only needs ~25%, seems like a pretty obvious call if there's even a tiny chance that limper has worse. Even a single combo of AKo, AKs, or QQ- makes this a clear call. It's at worst a slightly bad call, and potentially a substantially profitable call, as such, the correct action seems obvious given that payouts are fairly flat for the next 5 places.

Too many people are obsessed with making "big" folds, when those folds are, at best, marginally good. Obviously this isn't nearly as bad as Hank Azaria folding KK early in the WSOP ME when he was getting correct odds to call even if his opponent could only have AA.