1/2 JJ - cap pre-flop? How to proceed unimproved?

[BogusRogus]

Any reads on what CO's range of calling 3 bets cold could be?

Any reads on what MP1 might limp in with and then UFO "utterly Freak Out" on a two flush board?

Has MP1 been out of line in the past on flush cards (any sign of any two suited sydrome?)

Anything of note on remaining players - calling stations - hyper aggressive etc...?

Baring any specific info - very easy fold - but I would have raised the flop after MP1.. But that's just me.

[Dustangel]

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch from the cheap seats*

With a backdoor flush/straight draw, 2 outs to a set and 35 bets in the pool already you need around 8 to 1 to continue and you are getting 11 to 1 to see the turn calling 3 bets.

I am pretty sure you want to see the turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. A set is worth 1.5 outs due to the flush draw possibility, 2-gap backdoor street is 0.5 outs, backdoor flush is 1 out since it is very likely that someone has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Also keep in mind that an equally heated action can come on the turn, making backdoor draws expensive.

[Triggerle]

[ QUOTE ]
Any reads on what CO's range of calling 3 bets cold could be?

Any reads on what MP1 might limp in with and then UFO "utterly Freak Out" on a two flush board?

Has MP1 been out of line in the past on flush cards (any sign of any two suited sydrome?)

Anything of note on remaining players - calling stations - hyper aggressive etc...?

Baring any specific info - very easy fold - but I would have raised the flop after MP1.. But that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ]
No idea about CO. MP1 has 3-bet A2o preflop before. I know because I went 3 mildly expensive streets to showdown with AK with a 2 on the river. It is therefore possible for him to have just one pair on this flop.

Someone else mentioned that with this many people in capping pre-flop might not be for value since JJ might not hold up unimproved. Wouldn't set-value be enough with 5 people to the flop?

[Sushiglutton]

I wouldn't cap JJ pf against 4 opps OOP. The first flop call is fine, no reason to raise. And the fold is perfect.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

nh

[HollywoodDB]

I play the flop the same, but I don't cap preflop.

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]
I play the flop the same, but I don't cap preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. Here's why you typically don't cap PF with JJ:

w/o a read on villain, a standard 3-bet range is:
AA - 6 combos
KK - 6
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
TT - 6
AK(s)- 16

JJ is:
ahead - 22
behind - 18
tied - 1

Of the hands that you are ahead,
16 will spike a better pair on the flop 1/3 of the time and you will then be drawing to 2 outs. About 30% of the time you will get a flop of undercards to you JJ and then you look pretty good against AK, but he will not go away on the flop for 1SB, so he has a [1-(41/47)]= 13% chance to outdraw you on the turn. And that's if are out against a AK. All of this adds up to not capping PF with JJ.

[Vern]

That would be fine if it was heads up, but it isn't, there are at least three other hands that cannot three-bet it, which means there are likely three people putting money in the pot that I am ahead of. As long as my part of their mistake combines to more than the bet I put in, then I need to keep raising pre-flop.

[Vern]

Assuming that the other player with the three-bet is on AA-TT or AK and the other three in the pot are on two broadway, a pp, or two suited connectors upto one gap with no 2's I get JJ is 33%, the three bet hand is 27% and the other three are about 12% each. So pre-flop, I make 1/3 of each bet that goes into the pot. I put one bet in, get 4 calls, so I make 1.33 bets for the bet I put in. Unless I have some unusual read on the three other players in the hand besides myself and the three-bettor I cap this pre-flop.

Edit: FWIW, depending on my read on you, my three bet range is looser if I think can get it heads up against a loose raiser. I may three bet you with AQ, AJs, or 99. If my image of you is tight, then I would restrict myself to the hands you listed. The Cold Callers are not going away for my last bet, but I still make my money when I have an edge.

[tyler_cracker]

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there are likely three people putting money in the pot that I am ahead of. [...] I need to keep raising pre-flop.

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