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#11
01-31-2006, 02:00 AM
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Re: $2000+150. Am I bluffing?
I don't like it. Honestly I have no idea what he has but I doubt that he's bluffing. Its not necessarily bad, but I think that he could have a lot of somewhat decent hands here that he played passively on the flop or that liked that turn card. Your raise looks like a bluff too, especially if he knows that you're an aggressive player (which I'm assuming is true).
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#12
01-31-2006, 02:12 AM
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Re: $2000+150. Am I bluffing?
I feel a lot like Newt here. I don't get the point of this. Couldn't he have lots of hands he either missed a c/r with or things like weak aces or second pair that he just wanted to send around or something that the turn improved to a legit hand? You seem to be putting a lot of faith in your opponent playing this flop rationally, and then reacting to your turn raise in a similar way. I really don't think it's atrocious or anything because your logic isn't necessarily flawed... I just think it's off by too much to make this +EV.
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#13
01-31-2006, 02:33 AM
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Re: $2000+150. Am I bluffing?
AA is very possible isnt it? that would limp early, check the flop and bet the turn...
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#14
01-31-2006, 02:55 AM
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Re: $2000+150. Am I bluffing?
[ QUOTE ]
AA is very possible isnt it? that would limp early, check the flop and bet the turn... [/ QUOTE ] Yes it's possible. But 1st you have to realize that there are only 3 ways to have AA on this flop. There are 6 ways to have each other pocket pair, making any individual one twice as likely. Next, you have to factor in the times that he would raise AA preflop, let's be generous and say only 50%. If he would never raise 55 preflop, which I think is a fair assumption, but would always limp it, then he is 4 times more likely to have 55 than AA. He's 24 times more likely to have an unimproved pocket pair below TT than he is to have AA. He's 12 times more likely to have one than he is to have 66. In addition to those numbers, the board is draw heavy, and I think that any hand that can call my turn raise, besides flush draws, would bet the flop.
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