Fire turn?

[Kevin J]

It's an interesting dilemma. I agree that if it gets checked around you have almost no chance of winning, and as I stated in my 1st response I definitely don't want to give up on this pot. But I think you have to balance this with how often your turn bet will run into a raise, which I think will be quite frequently here.

So the question is, if you check and it gets checked around, that sucks, but it's still not a catastrophe, since you might still have quite a few cards to win (and there will be times when you'll have benefited from the free card). On the other hand, if there's a bet, this might open the door for a pretty convincing semi-bluff c/r.

So I'm still not convinced which is best. I'd have to go back and rely on what the dynamics of the game were so far, what my image was, etc., etc.

[mike l.]

this is a good spot to fire all three streets. youre oop so they can call the flop liberally hoping it freezes you up with the exact sort of hand you hold. most of the time all your outs are clean and if someone was holding something like even a small pair they would likely raise the flop. if youre raised on the turn you can call and fold unimproved and if you get just one caller on the turn you should fire one last time given pot size and meta hand reasons.

[mike l.]

wouldnt it be better to float here with something a little better or a little worse? QTo seems more like the sort of hand we'd like to get it heads up against the button with, while something like Q9s, or KQs, would be a nice float.

[Kevin J]

I s'pose. But the thing is, when you're wrong about button's range, you've really just succeeded in taking a crappy hand, heads-up, out of position, against a very formidable opponent (Hoss). I think if button were raising a full 60% of his hands here (again, I don't know how full the table was, so maybe it's more than that), I doubt QTo has even 50% equity out of postion against that range and this opponent. I could be wrong though. I'm definitely not an authority on short-handed 1k-2k play! -lol Just giving my opinion, cuz it helps me to think about these spots.

[mike l.]

ok then how about folding QTo. i mean that'd be my comfort zone and hero's too i would presume, even 4-5 handed or whatever it is. but then hero said button's range is way too wide. this is the type of hand i like to either pump and get heads up or just dump and wait. either way i feel like choosing between 3 betting or folding here is like choosing the lesser of two evils...

[Kevin J]

mike-

You certainly can't go too wrong with 3-betting or folding. I was just making the observation that if the bb plays significantly worse than hero or button, his mistakes might add a little extra equity for when it was wrong to 3-bet QT. I could be wrong though.

[mike l.]

ok good point. ive actually been thinking a little more in hands about that simple concept of keeping bad players in a pot when it's close between pushing them out or keeping them in. it's too easy to forget and just play full speed ahead.

[baronzeus]

if bb is bad in a way that he gives too much action or calls down too much in general, then coldcalling here is much much better than 3betting IMO

[baronzeus]

also, it's really not unlikely that hoss just calls the flop with a jack here, and its probably 100% likely that he'd just call the flop with any pair lower than that

[praios]

i give up on the turn