80NL - gettin MINdonked into all 3 streets??

[monkover]

yeah i think harris is right here. you have to rais b/c weak tp are a majority of his range although you can really narrow it down a lot.

[Ramana]

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Min raise! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
ldo

looks like someone wants to get dragged to valuetown, make it half pot or something...

Board: Qs 5h 8s 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.889% 83.84% 00.05% 830 0.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 16.111% 16.06% 00.05% 159 0.50 { random }

[Kasane]

Results please...

I repeat, despite villain's stats, despite the idiocy of the bets, despite the value of our hand -- we're almost never ahead here when a raise is called (we're ahead a good bit though.)

I've been here so many times, and I've raised so many times in this spot only to be shocked by... by whatever the eff it is.

[traz]

you're wrong

[Kasane]

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you're wrong

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Perfectly willing to admit it... if I am. And up until a certain point, I would totally, 100% be on your side and say raise it up. It makes sense to raise it. It's logical, it's good poker, it's fundamentally correct, theory is right....

I'm not arguing any of that at all. I'm just saying, this is one of the very, very few cases where experience tells me I'm usually ahead of villain -- but not if he calls, and we have to be ahead of 50% of villain's calling range for the bet to be profitable(correct me if I'm wrong here), not his range. I'm not even considering the case where he could reraise.

I'm totally with you though -- I could be wrong because I don't have a large enough sample of hands like this on my own.

[hitch1978]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Min raise! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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ldo

looks like someone wants to get dragged to valuetown, make it half pot or something...

Board: Qs 5h 8s 2c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.889% 83.84% 00.05% 830 0.50 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 16.111% 16.06% 00.05% 159 0.50 { random }

[/ QUOTE ]

We are not against a random hand here.

The way the hand plays out, villain is not expecting us to fold? Anyone disagree with that statement? So he has top pair AS A MINIMUM.

What do we do if he pushes?

I call.

[BevillTheDevil]

so how much do you guys raise (that advocate it)??? say you raise to around 1/2ish PSB and he pushs whats your action then??

[Jamougha]

He is a moron, and he almost never has a strong hand. Raise.

[kaz2107]

u guys r lookin at this the wrong way. obv we r ahead of villians range on the river. but are we ahead of his CALLING RANGE!?!?!?!? we will b making a HUGE bet on the river so is villian capable of calling a big river raise after we have raised the flop and turn big amounts?!?!? i think his range weighs HEAVILY on the river to either trash TPMK/missed FD or w/e and then monsters. that is a range where raising is terrible. i think a call on the river is better.

[shoxbb6]

treat it as a check and bet however much you'd normally value bet here.